Traders Exhibit Confidence in Canada Amid Bond-Market Turbulence, Finance Minister Says

Dow Jones
17 hours ago
 
 

The bond rout weighing on global markets Tuesday has left Canada relatively unscathed, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said, adding that the government can borrow at one of the lowest rates among major-advanced economies.

This gives Ottawa some flexibility and strength to plot measures to help an economy dealing with geopolitical turbulence and a deteriorating trade relationship with the U.S., he said.

"The bond market is showing a lot of confidence in Canada, both in the short term and in the long term," Champagne said on the margins of a Group of 20 meeting of finance officials in North Carolina on Tuesday.

Yields on 10- and 30-year government of Canadian bonds are up slightly in trading Tuesday but remain below near-term highs.

The yield on 10-year Canadian debt sits at 3.754%, or roughly a full percentage point below the yield on a comparable Treasury bond, according to data from Tullett Prebon. Canada's 10-year yield is also below that of comparable U.K., French and Italian debt, but above Japan's 2.996% and Germany's 3.36% level.

The bond selloff has been building for weeks and reflects a number of drivers.

A jump in oil prices this week after fighting resumed in the Persian Gulf was the latest catalyst. When energy prices rise and feed through to the economy, bond investors demand higher yields to compensate for higher inflation. Heavily indebted countries--such as the U.S.--have been hit hardest.

Some economists say that Canada's lower bond yields vis-a-vis the U.S. does give the country an advantage in the present, contentious trade conflict between the neighboring countries.

Interest expenses in Canada account for 10% of government revenue, versus 28% in the U.S., Sébastien Mc Mahon, chief economist at iA Financial Group, said. "Canada has real capacity to support its economy through the [trade] storm," he said.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney alluded to this advantage in recent remarks.

"We are entering a phase where fiscal strength, discipline, focus is going to be very important," Carney said at a press conference following the collapse last month of trade talks between Ottawa and Washington. "It's going to be scrutinized," he added.

When traders start to focus on a country's underlying fiscal fundamentals, "if you don't have your house in order, it's too late," Carney said. "We have our house in order, and we're getting stronger."

The prime minister came to power last year pledging to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, while pledging capital to either expand or build infrastucture to help sell Canada's goods to non-U.S. markets.

Carl Gomez, chief economist at Centurion Asset Management in Toronto, said government debt in Canada is set to climb as the economy faces structural headwinds, from a changing U.S. trade environment, aging demographics and a broader deployment of artificial intelligence.

"Fortunately, Canada is also one of the cleanest dirty shirts, with comparatively lower federal debt levels than most Group of Seven countries," Gomez said in a post on LinkedIn.

 
 

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