Why Higher Bond Yields Matter

Dow Jones
Yesterday

A sustained move higher in yields will have consequences well beyond Wall Street. One of the most direct victims is the government itself, which will be forced to pay higher interest rates on its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature and are replaced by new ones.

-- Even before this year's run-up, interest on the debt was consuming a bigger slice of the federal budget. Now, nearly one in five dollars of revenue goes to interest payments.

-- Over the past half-century, federal interest costs averaged 2.1% of GDP. That figure is slated to hit 3.3% this year on its way to 4.6% in 2036, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Higher yields also have political implications. Treasurys play a major role in determining borrowing costs across the economy, including 30-year mortgages.

Elected based in large part on voters' concerns about affordability, President Trump has repeatedly promised to lower mortgage rates.

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