Market watchers raise Singapore's 2026 GDP forecast to 5% in September survey

Felicia Tan

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An escalation or prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a bursting of the AI bubble were cited as downside risks.Market watchers are continuing to remain bullish on the Singapore economy, according...

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The median forecast for MAS core inflation is also lower at 1.9%, compared to the 2% in the previous survey.\nAccording to the respondents, headline inflation is likely to come in between 2% to 2.4% this year, unchanged from the June survey. However, the probability assigned to this range rose to 55% from the 45% in June.\nFor core inflation, respondents have assigned roughly equal probabilities of about 40% to the 1.5% to 1.9% and 2% to 2.4% ranges. Respondents saw higher likelihood of the 1.5% to 1.9% range happening in June.\nIn September, respondents expect the unemployment rate to remain at 2.1%, unchanged q-o-q.\nDespite the positive outlook, the most frequently cited downside risks were an escalation or prolonged conflict in the Middle East, as well as a bursting of the AI bubble.\nConversely, the respondents identified a sustained AI-driven upturn in the technology cycle as a \"key support\". A de-escalation or resolution of the Middle East conflict and stronger-than-expected global growth were also cited as \"important upside risks\".\nIn the current survey, more respondents - 45% of them - anticipate the central bank to tighten its monetary policy in October through an increase of the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, up from 30% in the previous survey. The remaining respondents expect to see no change to the slope of the policy band. Almost all of the respondents do not expect to see changes in the monetary policy stance in January 2027.\n2027 estimates\nIn 2027, the respondents expect Singapore's GDP to grow by 3.1% on average with the most likely growth range at 3% to 3.4%. This marks an increase from June's estimate of 2.5% and a probable growth range of 2% to 2.4%.\nHeadline and core inflation are forecast to come in at 2%, compared to 2.1% and 2.0% in the June survey, respectively.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}