Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0815 ET - Oil futures rise after the U.S. attacked Iranian rocket launchers, renewing military action in the Persian Gulf for the first time in weeks. "The longer geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions continue, the tighter the market gets, keeping upward pressure on crude," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. But the U.S. may have limited appetite for broader military action with its shift in focus to economic measures against Tehran and its enablers, he adds. Although below prewar levels, crude is finding its way out of the Middle East and with lower consumption the market could return to balance, he adds. WTI is up 3.4% at $86.21 a barrel, and Brent is 3.1% higher at $90.85. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0621 ET - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar decline, reversing some of Friday's rises after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh warned about inflation risks. Prospects of a Sept. 16 rate hike have increased, although investors await jobs data on Friday and inflation data next week. Rate-rise prospects and higher oil prices should support the dollar and yields, says DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman. "Rising oil prices could also revive concerns about persistent inflation, placing upward pressure on yields and strengthening the dollar." The two-year Treasury yield--which rose almost 12 basis points after Warsh's speech--falls 2.3 basis points to 4.325%, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year yield falls 1 basis points to 4.710%. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.525. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0552 ET - Maersk has seen a strong near-term earnings boost from more resilient freight rates, but J.P.Morgan says the current earnings and freight rate levels are unsustainable. In addition, strong near-term cash generation is unlikely to lead to material shareholder returns as capital expenditure in the shipping business will need to rise in order to halt capacity-share loss, the bank notes. Management noted that Maersk's utilization of its fleet capacity is now at 96% and that the task will be to ensure that the company has the capacity to grow. "This suggests fleet investment may need to increase," J.P.Morgan adds. The bank rates Maersk stock at underweight with a 10,000 Danish kroner target price. Shares rise 0.9% to 22,170 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0533 ET - Oil prices rise as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran revives concerns over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. November Brent rises 3.4% to $91.08 a barrel, while October WTI gains 3.3% to $86.19 a barrel. U.S. forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, prompting retaliation from Tehran and renewed fears over safe passage through the key Gulf shipping route. Recent disruptions have shown how quickly uncertainty around Hormuz can feed back into oil prices, say ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0442 ET - Physical oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz rather than military escalations will determine oil prices, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva says in a note. After shipping activity through the Strait has already fallen sharply, oil prices are vulnerable to sharp moves in both directions, she notes. However, if tanker traffic continues and crude flows remain relatively resilient, the geopolitical premium can fade quickly, the analyst says. "Any evidence of a sustained blockage, attacks on tankers or disruption to loading terminals would fundamentally change the equation," she adds. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 2.7% to $85.63 per barrel and front-month Brent crude oil futures added 2.7% to $90.50 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0415 ET - Oil prices are likely to decline in the near term, Julius Baer's Norbert Rücker says in a note. "The chit-chat of the day is about exchange estimates of how much oil is transiting through the Strait of Hormuz," he adds. Oil exports through the strait seems to be expanding incrementally, with estimates of up to 10 million barrels a day. Oil and oil product storage also seem to be holding up much better than feared, from North America to Europe and Asia. Julius Baer expects oil prices to drop into the $70s a barrel in 2026 and into the $60s in 2027. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 2.1% higher at $85.14 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 2.2% higher at $90.04 a barrel. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0413 ET - WuXi Biologics' stronger project backlog is likely to underpin its revenue visibility, says China Galaxy International Securities' Vicky Zhu in a note. The contract research, development and manufacturing company added 169 new projects and 119 net integrated projects in 1H, while its total revenue backlog reached US$25.1 billion as of end June, she notes. The acquisition of BioDlink also contributed to the higher number of projects, she adds. She raises her 2026-2027 revenue growth estimates to around 21% and lifts her 2026-2028 earnings per share estimates by 2%-8%. China Galaxy therefore raises its target price to HK$57.82 from HK$48.62 and maintains an add rating. Shares closed 3.6% lower at HK$48.84. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0313 ET - Bangchak Corp.'s positive earnings outlook is reinforced by its investor forum, UOB Kay Hian's Arsit Pamaranont says in a research report. Management aims to boost the petroleum and energy conglomerate's Ebitda to 100 billion baht by 2030 from 36 billion baht in 2025, with its strategy increasingly focused on maximizing value from existing businesses. Its trading business was another positive surprise, with management targeting trading Ebitda of roughly 1.6 billion baht in 2027 and 5 billion baht by 2031 after trading Ebitda reached 1.05 billion baht in 1H 2026. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to 65.00 baht from 52.00 baht to reflect valuation roll-forward, with unchanged buy rating. Shares are 0.5% higher at 55.00 baht. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0307 ET - Eurozone government bond yields edge higher, taking the 10-year Bund yield to a 15-year high of 3.290%, according to LSEG data. The rise follows an increase in oil prices after U.S. forces attacked two Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to the U.S. Central Command, risking a return to all-out conflict in a region. The prospect of interest-rate hikes in both the eurozone and the U.S. this year reinforces the move. Brent crude rises 1.3% to $90.49 a barrel. The 10-year Bund yield last trades 0.9 basis points higher at 3.284%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0252 ET - Frencken Group remains an add call to CGS International on two tailwinds, the brokerage's William Tng says in a research report. The analyst cites management's guidance for a strong recovery in the manufacturing solutions provider's semiconductor business over 2027-2028 and buying support for its shares from Singapore's Equity Market Development Programme. The company is also likely to post 8.8% EPS CAGR over 2025-2028 with potential for higher earnings in 2027-2028 if demand in its semiconductor segment remains strong. However, the brokerage lowers the stock's target price to 2.93 Singapore dollars from S$3.25 to factor in the company's proposed new share placement. Shares are 0.85% lower at S$2.33. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0235 ET - Nordic markets are seen opening slightly lower, with IG calling the OMXS30 down 0.4% to 3318. "The week begins with a suppressed risk appetite in Asia due to the fact that the U.S. and Iran have once again directed military attacks against each other," SEB's Dana Malas writes. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday also signaled disappointment that inflation remains above the 2.0% target and a risk that interest rates could rise, she says. The market now prices a roughly 60% probability of a rate increase on September 16. September could be an important month, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan expected to raise rates, Malas adds. OMXS30 closed at 3331.27, OMXN40 at 2733.09 and OBX at 2024.48. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0219 ET - China's economic momentum is likely to improve for the remainder of 2026, Capital Economics' Nguyen Hoang Nam says in a note. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index in August rose to 49.8 from 49.2 in July, beating expectations. The subindex for total new orders increased to 50.6, up from 48.5 in July. This suggests that fiscal spending on infrastructure may be on the cusp of picking up again after delays in the deployment of already-allocated funds by local governments, says the China economist.

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