0629 GMT - After Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, expectations for a 25bp interest-rate increase in September jumped from below 40% to above 60%. The U.S. dollar also gained and the U.S. 2-year yield, which best captures Fed expectations, advanced 15 bps, flirting with July-high levels. While the market reaction was strong, Warsh has yet to fully regain his credibility, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. "He must walk the talk--and, at times, do things that would displease the White House," she adds.
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