In the months since Russian President Vladimir Putin last met his most important strategic partner, China's Xi Jinping, their wartime fortunes have sharply diverged.
While Russia suffered a summer of painful strikes by Ukraine on its oil-and-gas industry and other economically vulnerable targets, China emerged from the global shock of the Iran war with more power over oil markets and greater resilience against the West.
The shifting power status of the two leaders will be front and center on Monday, when they are set to meet in Kyrgyzstan.
Also evident will be their shared resistance to U.S. power. The meeting is set on the sidelines of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a 10-nation, security-focused group that includes Iran, giving the isolated regime a measure of added international recognition.
China has provided a financial lifeline to Iran as Tehran tries to outlast a U.S. military and economic assault. Meanwhile, Iran has supplied lethal drones that Russia has used against Ukraine.
The location of the Xi-Putin meeting carries symbolic meaning for the pair, who have met dozens of times before. Moscow maintains an air force base in Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic, but as Moscow's international clout has waned during its protracted war in Ukraine, China has grown ascendant in the country.
That dynamic extends far beyond Central Asia. China's more dominant role is felt within the Kremlin itself, analysts say, with Putin now forced to accept the role of junior partner while the Russian economy grows more reliant on Beijing.
The economic pain that Russia has suffered from Ukrainian strikes only increases Moscow's dependence on China. That could provide Xi extra leverage to urge Putin to come around to Beijing's public position on Russia's war in Ukraine, calling for an end to violence and the start of negotiations.
At the same time, China has benefited from Russia's invasion, gaining cheaper oil and entry to the country's domestic market devoid of Western competitors. Russia's market has become so hostage to Chinese imports that various sectors have called on the Putin government to limit the amount of goods allowed in.
Beijing has never condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has offered some muted criticism, saying that nuclear threats shouldn't be issued, as Russian officials have repeatedly suggested they could employ nuclear weapons in the conflict.
The Putin-Xi meeting comes days after Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe made a secretive visit to Moscow. Ratcliffe warned Russia against attacking European countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and made clear that the U.S. remained committed to the NATO alliance, The Wall Street Journal reported.
While the prospect of Russia expanding its war to NATO countries could cause deep concerns for China, Xi is unlikely to raise such worries publicly, analysts say.
"If the issue is discussed at all, it would more likely happen behind closed doors," said Eva Seiwert, a senior analyst with Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
However, some tensions in the Russia-China relationship have surfaced. Some Russians accuse China of providing just enough support to keep the Russian economy afloat and its soldiers fighting while dumping some of its manufacturing excess into its northern neighbor.
Beijing has rebuffed Moscow's offers to build a new natural gas pipeline to China, demanding the gas pricing of Russia's subsidized domestic market instead. On the other hand, China provides some dual-use and drone parts to Russia.
A public split in Russia emerged earlier this year when ruling party United Russia lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin compared China's partnership with Russia to Europe's partnership with Ukraine-saying Beijing wasn't offering enough support to Moscow.
The public argument was short-lived.
"There's very little Putin can do when it comes to China, he still sees Xi as a strategic partner," said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
"Publicly, I would expect Xi to stick to China's familiar language: warning against escalation and calling for de-escalation, dialogue and a political settlement. That would allow Beijing to signal concern about a wider conflict without directly criticizing or publicly confronting Moscow."