Singapore Found a Way to Beat Gridlock-by Making Cars Cost as Much as a House

Dow Jones
Yesterday

SINGAPORE-At Richard Lim's car dealership in this small but wealthy city-state, the price tags seem more fitting for real estate.

A one-year-old BMW X5 SUV was on sale for the equivalent of $352,000. The price for a new Yaris Cross, a small city SUV from Toyota, was $152,000. Even a seven-year-old BMW 4 Series Gran Coupe, with 56,000 miles, cost nearly $70,000.

Buying a "car is almost equivalent to buying a property," Lim said. "It's a very big-ticket item."

For the past 36 years, a firm cap on car ownership has kept Singapore largely free of the gridlock that marks life in every other Southeast Asian metropolis. The government auctions off so-called certificates of entitlement, or COEs, without which a car isn't allowed on the road. Dealers generally advertise car prices that include the expected or actual COE cost.

The system has helped fund Singapore's extensive public transport and made it one of the most expensive places to own a car. More recently, however, prices for COEs have hit new highs, forcing drivers to make tough choices on whether to still own a vehicle-and if so, when to buy a new one.

At the latest auction this month, COEs in the small-car category sold for $101,000, up from around $23,000 in 2020. The certificates are valid for 10 years and attached to the vehicle, which means used cars usually come with even shorter-term COEs. Registration fees that can top $100,000 for high-end vehicles, and tolls that rise when roads are busy, further add to the cost.

There are about 667,000 cars in Singapore, including rentals and taxis, for a population of roughly 6.1 million people. In comparison, Maryland, which has about the same number of people as Singapore, has about 1.9 million private and commercial cars, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

The number of COEs for sale varies between auctions, which are held twice a month. Though the supply is higher this year, government incentives for new electric vehicles, some of which expire at the end of December, have pushed up demand and are complicating individual calculations on when to time a new purchase.

"People treat buying cars like timing the stock market," said Walter Theseira, a transport economist at Singapore University of Social Sciences. "They study past prices, chart patterns, come up with all kinds of reasons why it's a good or bad time to buy a car."

Singapore's rapid development following its separation from Malaysia in 1965 saw car ownership skyrocket. Between 1975 and 1990, the number of cars grew by as much as 12% a year, in a country that is roughly a quarter of the size of Rhode Island and the second-most densely populated nation in the world after Monaco.

The government introduced congestion pricing and vehicle taxes, and built a subway system. But with car ownership still growing, then-Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew introduced the COE system in 1990.

"We do not have the land to allow an unlimited growth of private cars," Lee said at a 1988 ceremony marking the opening of the city-state's subway.

For locals who want, or need, a car, the high prices are getting tough to swallow.

Cherry Hoang, a field consultant for a relocation agency, uses her Nissan Qashqai to drive newly arrived expats around town for their orientation. She bought the car secondhand about seven years ago for $71,000 and her COE is set to expire in October.

Extending her COE for five more years would cost around $50,000. Hoang, 56, wondered if she should get a new job. She now plans to get rid of the Nissan and rent a car on the days she needs one for work.

"No matter how I do the sums," she said, "it just feels like it's not worth it."

Singapore's public transport is widely considered one of the world's best. At peak hours, trains run as often as every two minutes and buses fill the gaps between subway stops. Delays and breakdowns are so rare that transport ministers have been known to apologize for service disruptions.

Still, having a car can condense a one-hour journey with multiple transfers into a 20-minute drive.

It was that convenience that pushed Shaun Lee, who works in advertising, to pay $110,000 for a two-year-old black BYD Atto 3, an electric SUV from China, which he received this month. He decided to sell his nearly 10-year-old royal blue Audi A4 for $13,000 a few months before its COE expires in December to recoup at least some residual value.

"Everyone who has one is blessed to have a car," said Lee, 44. Despite the expense, he supports the government's efforts to keep congestion in check given the country's small size.

It's "not great for my bank account," he said. "But it's good for Singapore."

After keeping the number of COEs largely stable since 2018, the government in 2024 said it would gradually add 20,000 more. It is also looking at tweaks to the different categories of COEs. One problem is that even high-end EVs can get COEs traditionally meant for small cars, which in some auctions made those certificates pricier than COEs meant for larger, luxury cars.

Singapore's Land Transport Authority, which manages the COEs, said roads already take up 12% of land, so it's hard to make space for more cars. "Therefore, we prioritize and invest heavily in public transport and active mobility," such as cycling, it said.

Lim, who owns the Speedo Motoring car dealership and is a vice president at the Singapore Vehicle Traders Association, said he now sells just 10 to 15 cars a month, versus 30 to 40 cars about a decade ago.

His suggestion: tying the COE to the owner instead of the car, which would allow drivers to change cars without having to bid for a new certificate.

When foreigners come to his dealership, they are taken aback by the prices. "Their expression is shock," he said.

 

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