Now that all three major off-price retailers have reported fiscal second-quarter earnings, Ross Stores can be declared the star.
Burlington Stores had a mixed showing, but the shares were hurt by a disappointing comparable sales result. The stock's decline may also reflect that the company is using its tariff refund to lower prices: It's not the only retailer to do so, and some investors may be worried the industry is in for margin-squeezing promotions.
Burlington wasn't alone in its decline. Shares of TJX Cos., the TJ Maxx owner and biggest player in the off-price industry, also declined after its lackluster report last week. The company-along with Target Corp.-showed relative weakness in the apparel category, although that's in contrast to results from other clothing brands such as Abercrombie & Fitch.
Yet with today's report from Burlington "rounding out the off pricers reports, it seems hard to ignore how much of a standout Ross has become," writes Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel.
The bar was already high for Ross, given that it delivered a massive 17% comparable sales blowout in the first quarter, but the company still managed to deliver a better-than-expected fiscal second quarter and offer upbeat guidance for the third quarter and the full year. Even excluding tariff benefits, gross margins easily exceeded expectations. That led the shares higher, and they are up a little over 8% since Barron's recommended them in late June.
While Burlington and TJX's comparable sales grew 2% and 4%, respectively, Ross delivered comp growth of 10%. July was Ross's strongest month for the metric, despite tough comparisons.
"Ross Stores continues to post industry-leading comps and gain momentum, widening the execution gap," writes Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe.
He isn't the only bull: All but one of the 20 analysts tracked by FactSet raised their estimates for Ross following the report. The average analyst price target is above $275, implying nearly 20% upside from where the stock stands today, even after the recent rally.
Ross's gains come after the company has put in a lot of work to remodel stores, improve merchandise, and increase social media presence. Those changes are resonating with shoppers-especially younger consumers on TikTok-who are still seeking out value amid persistent inflation.
TJX and Burlington management will inevitably face questions as to whether or not Ross is winning market share at their expense.
"In the current environment, we think a better value proposition clearly is winning Ross incremental share, and it is nearly impossible to think some of that is not at the expense of TJX," writes William Blair analyst Dylan Carden.
Regardless of whether or not that's the case, it's clear that Ross is doing a lot right.