The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0641 GMT - What Kevin Warsh says--or doesn't say--at Jackson Hole could move the market in a considerable way, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote. Warsh makes his first speech as Fed chair at the forum at a time of stubbornly above-target inflation and bond-market strain. After the Treasury said it would increase buybacks of longer-term debt to tame borrowing costs, investors are wondering how the Fed will respond to market intervention that could interfere with its policy steering. If Warsh seeks to regain credibility on his dual mandate of balancing inflation and unemployment, hawkish expectations would push the short end of the yield curve and the dollar higher, and equities lower. Silence on the Treasury strategy could trigger renewed selling pressure on the dollar and longer-maturity bonds. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0639 GMT - Accelerating service prices in Tokyo signal growing momentum that could drive broader Japanese inflation well past the Bank of Japan's target, says JPMorgan economist Takuho Morimoto. Tokyo service prices rose 1.4% in August from a year earlier, government data showed Friday. However, excluding nursery fee subsidies, underlying service inflation reached 2.3%, Morimoto estimates. Medical costs and rents--historically kept low by administrative pricing and measurement lags--are now moving toward or above 2%, he says. "It would reinforce the view that underlying inflation momentum is turning higher and underscore the risk that inflation could overshoot the [BOJ's] 2% target by a meaningful margin."(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0629 GMT - Fed Chair Warsh's address at Jackson Hole will try to achieve four main objectives, says Samarra Hammoud, FX strategist at CBA. These are: restore confidence in the Fed's commitment to containing inflation, ease concerns around fiscal dominance, convince markets that less reliance on forward guidance won't undermine stability, and build confidence in the Fed's taskforces, she says.These are ambitious goals and markets should be skeptical that communication alone will be enough to achieve them, Hammoud adds. Given Warsh's aversion to forward guidance, there is a risk markets judge his comments as insufficiently forceful on inflation. In that scenario, the dollar can fall, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0605 GMT - Underlying inflation in the Tokyo metropolitan area is likely much higher than official government data suggests. After adjusting for policy-driven discounts, such as subsidies for utilities and nursery fees, consumer prices excluding fresh food and energy are likely running at 2.5%, well above the 2% rise shown in Friday's data for August and the Bank of Japan's 2% target, says JPMorgan's Takuho Morimoto. "We expect inflation to accelerate further into year-end, increasing pressure on the BOJ and raising the risk that a delayed policy response could prove costly," the economist says. The overnight index swaps market is currently pricing in an 85% chance of a September rate hike. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0559 GMT - Negotiations on the 2027 budget will be a key risk across the eurozone government bond universe, Societe Generale rates strategists say in a note. The talks could potentially refocus investor attention on fiscal challenges and political uncertainty, including in Italy and Spain, they say. The strategists thus recommend investors stay bearish on French government bonds, or OATs, and mildly bullish on Italian and Spanish government bonds. As regards intra-eurozone bond yields, they remain close to recent highs, but within Societe Generale strategists' projected ranges. "Persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil and gas prices are not helping, alongside the global focus on growing sovereign debt, expectations of renewed supply, and increased political uncertainty after the summer recess," they say, favoring front-end bonds where carry remains most attractive. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0544 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise marginally ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole meet Friday. Bond investors are keen to hear Warsh's view on the fight against inflation and whether the recent softer data is enough for the Fed to stay on hold in September, SEB's Johan Javeus says in a note. Further, investors would like to hear his thoughts on the Fed's ability and willingness to help Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the fight to keep long-term interest rates down, as well as on possible changes in how the Fed will communicate with the market going forward, the senior economist says. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.8 basis point at 4.679%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0543 GMT - Floating unconventional policy ideas aren't good for market sentiment, according to Chris Iggo, chair of AXA IM Investment Institute and CIO Core at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "It makes investors question what the motivation is," he says in a note. Given the U.S. midterm elections are just over two months away, "some may conclude the key motivation is political," Iggo says. The U.S. Treasury last week announced doubling volumes at its buyback operations of long-dated securities, and there has been talk of using the Treasury's General Account to fund these buybacks. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0539 GMT - Based on August inflation results for Tokyo, nationwide consumer prices excluding fresh food are estimated to rise around 1.7% from a year earlier, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. The figure for Tokyo was +1.8%, vs. July's +1.7%, Friday's data showed. Tokyo data, released three weeks ahead of nationwide prints, are considered a leading indicator to gauge broader trends. While government subsidies pushed down energy costs in Tokyo, growth in services prices picked up to 1.4% in August from 1.2%. Policymakers and economists see services inflation as a key factor in gauging corporate price-setting behavior, as it tends to reflect hiring costs.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0528 GMT - A soft July U.S. payroll report could support the ringgit toward 4.020 a dollar, while stronger data or an unclear message from Fed chair Kevin Warsh could push the dollar toward 4.050 ringgit, according to Kenanga economists. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday will be the immediate catalyst, while payrolls will shape expectations for the September Fed meeting, they say in a note. Markets will also monitor U.S.-Iran developments, particularly efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, they write. Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to hold the policy rate at 2.75%, leaving the ringgit to be driven by global rates and dollar positioning. Kenanga expects the Fed to hold in September, with its first cut expected in 2Q 2027. Kenanga expects the dollar to face resistance at 4.039 ringgit, with support at 4.022 ringgit. The dollar is 0.1% lower at 4.0297 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0521 GMT - A bond buyback doesn't retire debt and so doesn't solve the structural problems that have been driving yields up, CIFC Asset Management's Natalia Lojevsky says in a note. "Treasury buys back bonds and funds it by issuing something shorter. That is a maturity swap, not deleveraging," the managing director says. With that, Treasury is treating a supply problem as a liquidity problem, she says. The long end of the Treasury curve is being pressured by simultaneous claims on the same finite pool of duration buyers: the Treasury, the AI capex cycle and the absence of the biggest and most price-insensitive buyer from the market, the Federal Reserve, and to some degree other reliable central bank buyers like Japan, China and the Gulf states, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0518 GMT - The annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole has, at times, been the stage for major shifts in Fed policy guidance, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, strategist at Swissquote. It will be Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chairman, at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above target and long-term yields have been under pressure, she says. Investors are questioning how the Fed will respond to Treasury's intervention in the bond market, which could interfere with the Fed's policy path. Warsh must say something, and what he says--or doesn't say--will probably move the market, potentially in a considerable way, she adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0515 GMT - Schroders remains tactically positive on government bonds, with higher real yields creating more attractive valuations, it says in a note. The backdrop to this view is its confidence that central banks will be able to tackle inflation. "We retain confidence in central banks' ability to navigate policy appropriately and see duration as a useful complement to our pro-cyclical positioning."