The AI Import Surge

Dow Jones
Aug 28

The goods trade deficit widened sharply last month. It was probably all about artificial intelligence.

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that U.S. imports of goods outstripped exports by a seasonally adjusted $118.8 billion in July, compared with a deficit of $101.4 billion in June. Most economists thought the deficit would narrow instead.

The culprit was a surge in imports of capital goods-a category that includes items such as industrial machinery, medical equipment and, notably, semiconductors and computers. Excluding automotive goods, the U.S. imported $140.1 billion in capital equipment last month, up 11% from June's $125.9 billion. That marks the largest percentage increase in over 30 years, according to data from Haver Analytics.

It is a reflection of how much of America's AI buildout relies on imported tech goods. That has consequences for the economy-because those products aren't produced in the U.S., they are factored out of gross domestic product. Economists were busy revising down their third-quarter GDP estimates after the trade data came out. Barclays economists, for example, now see it tracking at a 1.8% annual rate, versus the 2.2% they had previously penciled in.

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