The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0235 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asia session ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole later today. "Uncertainty over the Fed's reaction function and concerns that policymakers may be placing less emphasis on inflation control have increased market focus" on Warsh's comments, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say. "The USD could find support if Warsh and other Fed officials push back against currency debasement concerns and reaffirm their commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target," the strategists add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 1.2706 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0234 GMT - The Philippines Central Bank probably isn't done with raising rates, says ING's Deepali Bhargava in a note. The impact of El Nino and elevated higher oil prices could keep headline inflation volatile in the coming months. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to look for convincing evidence that core inflation is easing before calling a peak in rates. ING continues to expect the central bank to deliver one additional 25bp rate increase in 4Q. On Thursday, the Philippine central bank raised interest rates for the third straight meeting. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0207 GMT - Jackson Hole poses the next key test for gold, OCBC's Christopher Wong says. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech but with no Q&A typically attached, there's limited scope for markets to press for a clearer September signal. Still, traders are likely to parse the speech for insights on the Fed's broader policy framework and how Warsh defines it, possibly in terms of inflation persistence and forward guidance. "These may still have implications on USD, rates, sentiment and precious metals." OCBC remains constructive on gold as U.S. fiscal credibility concerns underpin demand, but an inability to sustain recent highs--plus a rebound in yields and the dollar after firmer inflation data--argue against chasing in the immediate term. Wong pegs resistance at $4,700-$4,769 a troy ounce with support $4,520; gold last at $4,575. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0159 GMT - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to stand pat on its policy rate in October, ANZ Research's Kausani Basak and Sanjay Mathur say in a report. The central bank is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as Philippine inflation has moderated in recent months. However, because the policy rate remains accommodative, the BSP has room to raise rates further if inflation risks rise. ANZ forecasts the central bank to hike in December due to El Nino-related price increases. This would bring the policy rate to 5.25% from 5.00% by year-end. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0142 GMT - Tokyo's latest consumer-price data shows the growing impact of higher oil costs caused by the Middle East conflict, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. The figures show price increases across daily household goods--including facial tissue, toilet paper, plastic wrap, plastic bags, and paper towels--suggesting that the pass-through of costs stemming from Middle East tensions has likely broadened, he says. That is in line with the Bank of Japan's view that the impact of higher oil costs will materialize around the summer. Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose 1.9% in August from a year earlier versus July's 1.8%. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0141 GMT - The Philippine peso's bias against the U.S. dollar has likely tilted higher, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. The senior currency analyst cites factors including expectations for oil prices to move lower and for the Philippine central bank to raise rates once more and stay somewhat hawkish. Also, the worst of El Nino effects may not materialize in rice prices in the Philippines, Wan adds. The dollar is 0.5% higher at 62.167 pesos, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0044 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher following overnight gains in U.S. technology shares. Information-technology services providers are leading gains. Fujitsu Ltd. is up 4.2% and NEC Corp. is 3.8% higher. The dollar is at 159.33 yen, compared with Y159.35 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium due later Friday. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.4% at 66378.90. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0019 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole later today. Warsh is unlikely to "discuss what the FOMC may decide at its next policy meeting in September given his strong aversion to forward guidance," CBA's Kristina Clifton says in a note. "Warsh will probably talk tough about reining in inflation," the senior economist and senior currency strategist says. "But there is a risk his comments are deemed not strong enough on tackling inflation, which pulls the USD down," Clifton adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 159.34 yen, but is 0.1% lower at 1,380.60 won, while the Australian dollar is steady at US$0.7195, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0014 GMT - JGBs fall in Tokyo's morning session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Investor focus could turn to the Japanese Finance Ministry's auction today of about 2.8 trillion yen of 2-year sovereign notes. "We expect a solid auction result based on substantial demand," SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki says in a research report. The junior analyst cites factors such as solid outcomes at auctions in July 2025 and January 2026. The 10-year JGB yield is up 1.5 bps at 2.905%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2346 GMT - Japanese stocks might decline as uncertainty over the Iran war continues. The market could also be weighed by caution ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium due later Friday. Nikkei futures are down 0.2% at 66060 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.34 yen, compared with Y159.35 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on any developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.2% to 66131.98 on Thursday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
2027 GMT - The monetary-policy panel at the CD Howe Institute, a prominent Canada think tank, says the Bank of Canada should keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25% for the next 12 months. Six of the nine economists leaned toward the BOC making no move for the next 12 months, citing the fresh uncertainty posed by what could be a prolonged U.S.-Canada trade conflict. The think tank says the economists leaning toward hikes in the next 12 months "relied on heroic assumptions" that the two countries would eventually return to talks and hammer out a mutually-agreeable pact. The panel says recent momentum in economic data means little with preferential access to the U.S. market -- which Canada has enjoyed for four decades -- now under threat. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1953 GMT - Moving between jobs has gotten harder for U.S. workers, and new research by the Minneapolis Fed shows that non-compete agreements and employer concentration could be the culprit. States with larger increases in concentration also experienced larger declines in upward job mobility, according to the research. In addition, the growing use of non-compete agreements makes it harder for workers to leave for other opportunities, potentially weighing on wage growth. "Recognizing that workers are less likely to leave, employers are offering lower wages," the economists write.