How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? That's the question on investors' minds.

They are looking for Warsh to offer more clarity than he provided last month, in an appearance that was widely criticized for failing to clearly articulate how the Fed's rate stance will reduce inflation. Today marks his first major address since then, but some market watchers are skeptical the tight-lipped chairman will tip his hands on rates.

That's in part because Warsh has previously eschewed forward guidance, arguing that such signaling has led policymakers to hold onto forecasts longer than they should.

"The irony is that he now faces pressure to communicate more clearly to address questions around the Fed's credibility," wrote Hetal Mehta, chief economist at the British wealth manager St. James's Place. "Explicit guidance on the near-term path for rates would therefore be at odds with his preferred approach, but markets will scrutinize his language closely for any indication of how the Fed's reaction function is evolving."

Many investors see a strong possibility that Warsh instead uses the opportunity for a big-picture speech, which, according to Deutsche Bank strategists, could include "a discussion on the Fed's task forces, or potentially on AI's economic impact."

"Whatever he does talk about, to succeed he needs to show the flat-footed realism that Fed Chairs are known for," wrote Jon Faust, an adviser to the last three Fed chairs, this week.

Warsh "should avoid reprising his dubious claim of purified market signals he's now getting, especially in light of Bessent directly contradicting that notion," Faust continued. "It may seem like a low bar, but I think that any no nonsense speech would stand out as a major victory in today's environment."