Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Aug 28

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0956 ET - Canada's solid 3.3% annualized growth in 2Q was partly driven by consumer spending, which remains resilient despite the dark clouds posed by the Trump administration's trade policy. Royce Mendes, managing director at Desjardins Capital Markets, notes that after-tax income in Canada rose sharply, 8.8% in the three-month period. That in turn helped households to sock away more in savings, he says, as the household savings rate rose in 2Q to 3.7%. Statistics Canada says the after-tax income gain was mainly due to higher wages, and new sales-tax credits the federal government introduced to offset increased food costs. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0948 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar are largely flat ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole. Investors hope that the usually tight-lipped Warsh will give signals on his near-term expectations for rates and inflation. UBS says its base case remains that incoming data should confirm inflation is gradually easing. This should allow the Fed "to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of this year before lower inflation opens the door to potential rate cuts in the first half of 2027," says Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Global Head of Equities. The 10-year yield is at 4.68% versus Thursday's settle of 4.67%. The two-year yield is 4.24% versus 4.23% Thursday. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0938 ET - Canada's robust 3.3% annualized GDP gain was even stronger than the headline suggests, says Ariane Curtis of Capital Economics. Growth was broad-based, she says, noting net trade led the charge, followed by household consumption, business investment and government outlays. A sizable drawdown in inventories prevented growth from matching or surpassing market expectations for a 3.5% gain. But there are two reasons for caution, the economist adds. First, fresh headwinds coming from US tariffs; and a reversal of gains in some sectors after a temporary World Cup boost. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0937 ET - Bitcoin has reclaimed $80,000, which XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni says is an important psychological level for cryptocurrency traders. The coin is gaining momentum from the Treasury's recent interventions in the bond market and a strengthening regulatory outlook for cryptocurrencies, Massabni says. A significant portion of Bitcoin's recent advance has been linked to the "debasement trade," in which investors gain more exposure to alternative assets due to concerns about weakened purchasing power from traditional currencies, he says. Some investors have interpreted the Treasury's recent push to ease yields could depreciate the U.S. dollar, Massabni says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

0928 ET - The 3.3% growth in Canadian gross domestic product for the second quarter is much stronger than the 2.5% expansion most recently forecast by the Bank of Canada. Yet it may not be enough to budge central bankers next week, when they next decide on monetary policy. The growth marks a sharp acceleration from the first quarter and a rebound from the contraction in the final quarter of last year, buoyed by higher exports, household spending and business investment. Still, inflation worries persist given oil prices remain elevated, and uncertainty over trade remains high. On top of that, the third quarter may be off to a sluggish start. GDP rose 0.3% on-month in June, a third consecutive monthly increase, but Statistics Canada's advance look at July indicates GDP was little changed. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0927 ET - The Bank of Canada next week is likely to acknowledge the strength in the economy prior to the rise in economic tensions between the U.S. and Canada -- but that will mean little given fresh layer of uncertainty now hovering over the country's businesses, says Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at global-payments firm Corpay. Canada GDP rose 3.3% annualized in 2Q, or well above the BOC's 2.5% forecast. In the past week, though, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on certain Canadian imports, and Canada has responded with retaliatory tariffs of their own. Schamotta says the Canadian dollar is trading flat following the 2Q performance, and the currency remains vulnerable "to a dovish repricing of the BOC's policy trajectory." BOC issues its next decision this coming Wednesday. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0919 ET - Canada had impressive economic growth in 2Q, but that will be yesterday's news as far as the Bank of Canada is concerned, says Andrew Grantham, economist at CIBC Capital Markets. The sharp escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada hangs over the economic outlook, and Grantham adds the monthly GDP data suggest activity slowed in July. The 3.3% annualized gain in GDP suggests a slightly narrower output gap, or the measure of slack in the economy. Still, the Statistics Canada estimate of flat growth in July has GDP tracking toward a slower 1.5% rise in 3Q, and Grantham says CIBC does not expect the BOC "to move off the sidelines anytime soon." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0918 ET - Statistics Canada's GDP report for 2Q shows an economy booming just before an escalation of trade tensions. Overall, 2Q GDP grew 3.3% annualized, below market expectations but well ahead of the Bank of Canada's previous estimate. The data agency notes GDP growth would have been higher were it not for a sizable drag on inventories. The change in inventories stripped off 1.3-percentage-points from 2Q growth. Policymakers will likely be encouraged to see business investment rise in 2Q, or the first increase in five quarters. And final domestic demand -- which incorporates buying by households, business and government, excluding net exports and inventories -- jumped 3.9%, or the biggest increase in at least a year. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0906 ET - The Canadian dollar is the biggest loser among G-10 currencies this week, hit by the trade war dispute between the U.S. and Canada, Bannockburn Capital Markets' Marc Chandler says in a note. Down about 0.65%, it is "the heaviest [loser] of the G-10 currencies this week," he says. The Australian dollar stands out as the strongest gainer, having risen about 0.40%, encouraged by the swing in sentiment toward another interest-rate hike this year, Chandler says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0905 ET - Canada's technical recession evaporated with data revisions. The economy expanded a solid 3.3% at annual rates in the second quarter. That was slightly softer than the nearly 3.5% expansion economists expected, but comes after gross domestic product for the first quarter was revised upward. Now Statistics Canada calculates the economy grew 0.3% annualized in 1Q, rather than theslight 0.1% contraction it previously estimated following a 1% drop in GDP in the last quarter of 2025. Back-to-back quarterly contractions can define a technical recession. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0856 ET - Canadian economist David Rosenberg reckons that President Trump's decision to escalate trade tensions between Ottawa and Washington by issuing an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America could add further weakness to the U.S. dollar. "This childish behavior out of the White House is yet another reason to adopt a dire view of the U.S. dollar," says Rosenberg, head of market-strategy firm Rosenberg Research. "Even reserve currencies require global investor confidence. And it is being lost," says Rosenberg, citing the trade conflict with Canada and the war in Iran. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0823 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb further as markets wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium at 1400 GMT. "We think it is unlikely we will hear much about interest rates from the Fed Chair, given his stated desire to eschew forward guidance," RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields climb 3.2 basis points to last trade at 5.059%, Tradeweb data show.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10