MW 3 charts that show why Americans no longer believe hard work is enough for financial success

Andrew Keshner

Views on what it takes to get ahead in the U.S. are undergoing a 'sea change' away from a traditional faith in talent and effort

Work hard, get ahead? Americans no longer think hard work is the key to financial success.

Americans are abandoning the belief that smarts and effort are the best ways to get ahead in life, according to new research, underscoring the pessimism many people have about their chances at financial success.

The gloom has a lot to do with high prices and wages that are struggling to keep up.

Fewer than four in 10 Americans said they believe talent and hard work matter most for financial success , according to a six-year survey of more than 28,000 people by the FrameWorks Institute, a nonprofit research organization focused on how people view the economy, government and society.

In stark contrast, 65% think the top factor for people and groups that get ahead is that they have better opportunities.

'They're just less convinced that hard work is enough, given how the economy works.'Andrew Volmert, FrameWorks Institute

That's a big change from just a few years ago. As late as mid-2022, more people said hard work mattered more in paving a path to financial success.

"We are seeing a sea change," according to Andrew Volmert, senior vice president of programs at FrameWorks. Waning belief in past beliefs about getting ahead is seen across a range of demographics, including political affiliation and income level, he said.

In June, a record-low 35% of surveyed people believed hard work and talent mattered most for financial success, he noted.

Americans continue to value hard work, Volmert said. "They're just less convinced that hard work is enough, given how the economy works."

FrameWorks researchers have been measuring Americans' moods on economic mobility since 2020.

The belief in the "meritocratic mindset" really started to fall off in the October 2022-to-March 2023 time period, according to polling. There's now a roughly 30-percentage-point difference between the share of people who believe that success is linked to hard work versus the idea that success comes from having better opportunities.

The timing isn't coincidental, Volmert said. "We believe that the rise in inflation decreased people's faith, and our society's ability to make sure that everyone gets a fair shake."

America's affordability challenges mounted fast in 2022, as inflation rates soared as the U.S. and global economies restarted following the coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve started raising its benchmark rate to combat rising prices. As prices for groceries, utilities and other essentials grew, so did the barriers to many Americans' biggest dream purchase: a house. After a massive run-up in home prices during the pandemic, mortgage rates doubled from 3.22% at the start of the year to 6.42% at the end of 2022.

Today, the situation is not much better for aspiring home buyers. Home prices have continued to rise, and the average 30-year mortgage was 6.66% on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. For decades, homeownership has been a bedrock symbol of success. Yet many more people now think they'll remain renters forever.

While prices and borrowing costs climbed, hard work, as measured in paychecks, couldn't keep up. Americans' pay didn't keep up with inflation throughout 2022, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.

Pay growth modestly kept ahead of inflation during 2024 and 2025. More recently, inflation has warmed up again, amid Middle East tensions and higher oil and gas prices. For most of this year, pay growth has barely kept up with inflation, or fallen behind price growth.

Clara Blustein Lindholm, FrameWork's director of research interpretation, said she's seen anxiety growing in survey responses. In the past two years, criticisms of the economy have been combining "with a sense of unease and uncertainty. ... [Survey respondents] can't predict what is going to happen next, what their own economic and own financial situation will be like at any given day."

One way to get a pay bump is to land a new job. In today's job market, though, finding new work is no easy task. Many employers are in a low-hire, low-fire mode. Job searches can be lengthy and grueling for people who are out of work and looking.

In July, the labor-force-participation rate fell to its lowest level since early 2021. This is the share of Americans who are working or looking for employment. One theory about the decline is that people are giving up the job hunt because of their frustrations.

Inflation and the cost of living remain key topics for politicians and policymakers. On Friday, the Federal Reserve's chair, Kevin Warsh, elaborated on his plan to curb inflation. The market-implied likelihood of a Fed interest-rate hike as soon as next month jumped.

"If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it?" he asked. "Not the financial highfliers. Hard-working Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that is too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure."

Affordability looks to be a key issue for voters in November's midterm elections - just as has been the case in numerous elections of the recent past.