The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0352 GMT - Lynas Rare Earths has again been vague in its guidance for the year ahead, says UBS. "While there was much focus [and perhaps disappointment] on the FY27 outlook...we argue that LYC's value proposition [at least for us] has always been far more expansive than one-year earnings," the bank says. Its view is that the hurdle to higher volumes relates to Lynas's own ability to produce more, rather than any difficulty in finding customers. UBS says it is focused on costs, as expanded facilities ramp up, as well as continued increases in heavy rare-earths output and the miner's long-term downstream growth plans. UBS reiterates its buy rating. Its trims its target to 22.50 Australian dollars a share from A$22.75/share. The stock is down 1.4% at A$16.17.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0303 GMT - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade amid improving sentiment and persistently high shipping rates. However, iron ore demand remains relatively weak while supply stays at an elevated level, Baocheng Futures says in a research note. Although iron ore prices are rebounding after recent falls, China Galaxy Futures still holds a relatively bearish view given China's sluggish steel demand in both the construction and manufacturing sectors. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 1.0% at 724.0 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0247 GMT - Palm oil rises in Asian trading following overnight gains in soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. However, technical analysis suggests that crude palm oil futures are showing bearish momentum, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Any further gains may face resistance at 4,892 ringgit a ton, while weak export demand and mixed production estimates continue to weigh on sentiment, it says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 53 ringgit at 4,869 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0240 GMT - Macquarie questions the role of manganese in South32's portfolio in the long term. As the miner sells its aluminum business, it is putting copper and zinc at the heart of growth plans. Alongside South32's FY results, management reiterated that copper and zinc are the preferred growth commodities, while the near-term focus for manganese is safe and stable operations, Macquarie says. "There was no update on potential portfolio action, leaving manganese's longer-term strategic fit unresolved as the aluminum divestment progresses," it says. Macquarie has a neutral rating on South32. It raises its target price by 16% to 5.00 Australian dollars a share, citing higher spot commodity prices, among other factors. Shares are unchanged at A$5.21.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0228 GMT - Sime Darby's rental and maintenance activities in its Australasia industrial division are expected to recover after several quarters of deferment, Maybank Investment Bank's Loh Yan Jin says in a note. Industrial demand across other Asian markets should remain supported by strong data-center and infrastructure spending, she writes. The analyst expects the motor division to continue benefiting from EV sales and support from vehicle manufacturers, while the Malaysian company's UMW unit will likely be supported by stable automotive demand and new model launches. Loh raises FY 2027-FY 2028 earnings forecasts for Sime Darby by 10%-15% following better-than-expected FY 2026 earnings. Maybank boosts the target price to 2.96 ringgit from 2.53 ringgit while maintaining a buy rating on the stock. Shares are 0.4% higher at 2.52 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0224 GMT - Boss Energy bull Macquarie thinks investors are too wrapped up in the uranium producer's short-term outlook. "FY27 is not the destination, yet the market has over-focused on it," Macquarie says in a note. It says the year ahead will be one of transition for Boss, which disappointed with weak FY27 guidance reflecting lower grades. "We suggest looking longer term" and focusing on the ramp up to 1.9 million pounds a year, says the bank. "Honeymoon value will be better demonstrated when fully ramped," it says. Macquarie reiterates an outperform rating and raises its price target by 2.8% to A$1.80 a share. Shares of Boss are down 2.3% at A$1.48, adding to Thursday's 17% tumble. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0207 GMT - Jackson Hole poses the next key test for gold, OCBC's Christopher Wong says. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech but with no Q&A typically attached, there's limited scope for markets to press for a clearer September signal. Still, traders are likely to parse the speech for insights on the Fed's broader policy framework and how Warsh defines it, possibly in terms of inflation persistence and forward guidance. "These may still have implications on USD, rates, sentiment and precious metals." OCBC remains constructive on gold as U.S. fiscal credibility concerns underpin demand, but an inability to sustain recent highs--plus a rebound in yields and the dollar after firmer inflation data--argue against chasing in the immediate term. Wong pegs resistance at $4,700-$4,769 a troy ounce with support $4,520; gold last at $4,575. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0119 GMT - Gold declines in early Asian trade as traders await a speech from Fed Chair Warsh, hoping for clues on the trajectory of interest rates as inflation stays sticky. A balanced tone at from Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference could support gold, says Kudo.com's Konstantinos Chrysikos, while hawkish remarks could lift bond yields and pressure the precious metal. he says. A higher rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold. "Markets will also watch any shifts in geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices and inflation expectations," he adds. Spot gold drops 0.3% to $4,588.23 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0113 GMT - Westgold Resources reports a beat on its dividend alongside in-line earnings, says RBC Capital Markets analyst James Redfern. Westgold's final dividend of 10 Australian cents a share is above consensus of A$0.076/share, while underlying Ebitda of A$1.10 billion compares to consensus at A$1.12 billion. "A new FY27 shareholder capital return policy of a minimum of 3cps [cents per share] through dividends and share buybacks was also announced," notes Redfern. He says the market will be watching for further updates on Westgold's growth strategy and outlook, planned for Sept. 9. RBC has an outperform rating and A$6.50/share target on Westgold. The stock is up 1.4% at A$6.65/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0109 GMT - Zinc is higher during early Asian trade, with the three-month contract on the LME rising 0.2% to $3,892.50 a ton. Traders are contending with supply shortages on the London Metal Exchange, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. The base metal's stockpiles at LME warehouses have dropped over 20% in the past two months, they add.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0101 GMT - Mineral Resources' FY result reflects a successful turnaround year, says Macquarie. It says the miner's resumption of dividends is a signal of returning balance-sheet strength. "Cost improvement/containment will remain an important focus in FY27 given inflation pressures," says the bank. Macquarie keeps its target of 80 Australian dollars a share and outperform rating on the stock. Shares are down 0.2% at A$65.26. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1952 GMT - Cattle futures pick up after four sessions of losses fueled by government plans to allow imports free of out-of-quota tariffs and the partial reopening of the border to Mexican cattle. Pork export sales for the week ended Aug. 20 rose 42% from the previous week to 38,700 metric tons and beef export sales slipped 1% to 9,200 metrics tons, the USDA reported. Live cattle rise 1% on CME to $2.12925 a pound. Lean hogs slip 0.3% to 80.625 cents a pound.