Founder Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report stating that, at this stage, a bottom-up approach to identifying individual stock opportunities is more suitable for the AI glasses sector than simply betting on broad beta returns for the entire industry. The firm believes the sector remains in the early consumer adoption phase, and there is a time lag before related companies deliver on their earnings. It recommends screening targets along two key logic lines: the reconstruction of consumer scenarios and the implementation of AI-specific hardware. The focus should be on companies with strengths in supply chains, distribution channels, cost control, product competitiveness, and execution capability, which can translate into tangible revenue and shipment growth.
The current market is in a critical phase of transitioning from product validation to rapid volume growth. The maturity of AI capabilities, combined with the race for the next-generation hardware entry point, is pushing the industry into an acceleration period. On one hand, multimodal large models have filled the gaps in traditional smart glasses regarding visual understanding and semantic interaction, evolving them from information collection and display devices into AI terminals with "perception, understanding, and interaction" capabilities. On the other, as smartphones mature, tech giants are constantly searching for the next universal computing portal, and AI glasses, with their proximity to the user and always-on physical attributes, have become a key candidate form factor.
The core product logic for AI glasses hinges on the early maturity of software AI capabilities, rather than relying solely on breakthroughs in optical display technology. As the capabilities of multimodal large models continue to improve, practical applications like visual understanding, real-time translation, and environmental recognition are gradually being implemented. This is shifting product demand away from the expression and rendering focus of traditional AR glasses toward execution, collaboration, and assistance. Compared to earlier AR/VR products centered on content and experience, AI glasses are much closer to daily usage scenarios and have the potential to reach a broader consumer base.
The global market has entered a phase of rapid shipment growth, but the competitive landscape is still evolving. In the first half of 2026, global smart glasses shipments grew 212% year-on-year. IDC data indicates that in Q1 2026, global smart glasses shipments grew 130.1% year-on-year, with display-less smart glasses seeing a 167% increase. Meta, leveraging its RayBan brand, first-mover advantage, and AI capabilities, continues to dominate the global market.
The domestic Chinese market, however, shows a differentiated competitive landscape with multiple routes. In the first half of 2026, China's smart glasses sales grew 85.5% year-on-year, with AR, camera, and audio product forms developing in parallel. Manufacturers are positioning themselves around AI interaction, AR displays, recording capabilities, and ecosystem collaboration.
AI glasses have long-term penetration potential, but their adoption path is more likely to be a stratified one rather than replicating the smartphone's one-device-per-person model. User willingness to wear, battery life, weight, appearance, and privacy concerns serve as natural product constraints. Furthermore, AI glasses currently serve more as an efficiency enhancement tool rather than a necessity for communication. Therefore, in the long run, they are more likely to become a secondary entry point or second device that complements the smartphone, achieving higher penetration rates among frequent users in business, travel, and creator communities first.
The industry's value chain primarily revolves around core components, large-scale manufacturing, and brand and optical channel segments. Upstream, core components like SoCs and optical displays benefit from the demand for higher AI computing power, lower power consumption, and lighter weight. Midstream ODM/OEM players demonstrate capabilities in miniaturized design, precision manufacturing, and large-scale delivery. Downstream, brands, lens, and optical channels benefit from the expansion of consumer scenarios and the demand for myopia adaptation. Currently, Chinese companies are strongly involved in the manufacturing side, but there is still import dependence for some high-end SoCs and key optical components.
Risks to consider include regulatory tightening, shipment volumes falling short of expectations due to demand stratification, slower-than-expected technological iteration, and the risk of price wars initiated by major players squeezing the profits of mid-tier hardware manufacturers.