SpaceX closed at 142.23 USD, down 1.02%.

Dominant bearish flow defined the session, led by a $53.57 million net-debit multi-leg put spread and a $3.69 million outright long put. Both trades point to institutional positioning for extended downside rather than short-term wobble, with the largest structure combining in-the-money bought puts against short higher-strike put legs to finance a defined bearish posture. The second-largest trade added long-dated out-of-the-money put exposure, reinforcing a defensive and directional negative bias across the complex.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility stands at 54.30%, and with an IV percentile of 75.47%, current volatility is in an elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to the stock’s recent history. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.59 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, meaning the options market is not fully matching the magnitude of recent actual movement even though pricing remains rich on a historical percentile basis. This combination points to a somewhat mixed volatility backdrop, but overall premiums still sit on the expensive side.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.32.

Large Trades

A put spread complex with a net debit of $53.57 million was the dominant large trade, consisting of long 205.0 puts and 200.0 puts against short 230.0 puts and 210.0 puts, all expiring on 2026-09-18. Because this combination includes both bought puts and sold puts, it is best read as a multi-leg put spread strategy rather than a synthetic structure. With the 205.0, 200.0, 230.0, and 210.0 strikes all above the current reference price of 142.23, every leg was in the money at execution. The net debit indicates the trader paid meaningful premium to establish downside-oriented put exposure while partially financing it through short higher-strike and lower-higher-strike put legs, suggesting a defined-structure bearish positioning or hedge that still seeks additional downside participation rather than pure premium collection.

A put buy worth $3.69 million was the other standout trade, with 3,000 contracts of the 115.0 put expiring on 2027-06-17 purchased outright. This was an out-of-the-money downside bet relative to the current stock price of 142.23, giving the buyer long-dated bearish exposure and convex protection if SPCX weakens materially over time. The trade’s structure is straightforward: the buyer paid premium for directional downside exposure, which is consistent with either a bearish outlook or a longer-horizon hedge against a significant drawdown. Overall, the large-trade flow is clearly bearish, as the biggest capital commitment was a sizable net-debit put spread and the second-largest highlighted trade was an outright long put, showing that institutional activity was concentrated in downside protection and negative directional positioning rather than upside speculation.

Strategy Reference

For traders seeking lower assignment probability on the short side, selling the 115.0 put expiring 2027-06-17 could offer a distant out-of-the-money strike, though the long-dated tenor means the underlying can move significantly before expiration and expensive premium collection must be weighed against tail risk. Given the elevated IV percentile, a cautious alternative is a bear put spread such as buying the 120.0 put and selling the 100.0 put in the same 2027-06-17 expiry, capping upfront cost while still aligning with the bearish institutional flow without posting excessive margin.