Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually recovering as Middle Eastern producers increase exports despite ongoing Iranian threats to maritime shipping, helping to temper upward pressure on oil prices.

According to estimates from traders involved in monitoring tanker movements, approximately 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude now transit this critical global chokepoint daily. Volumes had fallen in July following a series of Iranian attacks on very large crude carriers, which shattered a temporary ceasefire and heightened shipping risks.

Current throughput remains roughly half of pre-conflict levels. However, estimates vary widely and remain volatile, with some shipping tracking agencies and US officials suggesting actual volumes could be higher.

Maritime security conditions remain fragile. The British Navy reported attacks on two cargo vessels on Monday, underscoring that shipping risks are still elevated.

Despite these challenges, recent signs indicate Gulf producers are boosting exports. A fleet of tankers is now engaged in shuttle runs, transporting crude to waters outside the Persian Gulf, where larger vessels waiting beyond the Strait of Hormuz—unwilling to risk direct transit—take delivery of the cargo.

All major Gulf producers except Iran have shifted to completing crude deliveries outside the Strait of Hormuz. Georgios Sakellariou, freight analyst at shipping analytics firm Signal Maritime, noted that "in the past few days, more and more crude appears to be leaving the Strait of Hormuz. If this trend holds, oil prices will stay low—though what is considered low is still near $85 per barrel."