Key market data shows that LME zinc spot premiums stand at $133.36 per tonne. On the Shanghai front, SMM data indicates that spot zinc prices in Shanghai moved by 305 yuan per tonne to 26,215 yuan per tonne, with a spot premium of -50 yuan per tonne. Guangdong saw spot zinc prices shift by 310 yuan per tonne to 26,230 yuan per tonne, carrying a premium of -95 yuan per tonne, while Tianjin's spot zinc price increased by 305 yuan per tonne to 26,165 yuan per tonne with a premium of -100 yuan per tonne.
In the futures market, the main Shanghai zinc contract opened at 26,140 yuan per tonne on 2026-08-26 and settled at 26,240 yuan per tonne, marking a gain of 185 yuan per tonne from the previous session. Total trading volume reached 188,235 lots, with open interest at 161,482 lots. The intraday peak hit 26,425 yuan per tonne, while the low point touched 26,050 yuan per tonne.
On the inventory front, total zinc ingot inventories across seven major Chinese regions stood at 268,300 tonnes as of 2026-08-26, a decrease of 2,100 tonnes from the prior period. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventories were recorded at 97,325 tonnes, reflecting an increase of 2,275 tonnes compared with the previous trading day.
US core inflation came in line with expectations, with no escalation in rate hike expectations, keeping the macro environment largely stable. Zinc prices are trending stronger, supported by cost factors and persistent overseas squeeze risks. Supply-side support remains robust, with domestic ore output declining on a month-over-month basis. Domestic smelters continue to compete aggressively for ore supplies, maintaining expectations of a rapid downward trend in September contract prices for domestic ore. Imported ore port quotes stand at -$120 to -$150 per tonne, reinforcing the ongoing downtrend in ore prices.
Furthermore, the zinc ingot market continues to exhibit a pattern of strength abroad and weakness at home, with overseas premiums climbing steadily and the export window remaining open. Although domestic demand is sluggish and social inventories remain elevated, micro-level indicators are beginning to show signs of a shift toward the peak consumption season, with downstream operating rates recovering on a sequential basis.
Combined with improving micro data, zinc prices are likely to extend their upward trajectory in the near term. Key risks include unexpected disruptions to overseas ore supplies, domestic consumption falling short of expectations, and liquidity changes exceeding forecasts.