Shipping tracking data released on Monday (August 31) shows that visible commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged approximately five per day over the weekend. Actual transits may be higher, as some vessels have turned off their automatic identification systems to avoid attacks. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center issued attack warning number 122-26 on Sunday, reporting that an inbound tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile on Saturday approximately 12 nautical miles north of Oman's Khasab. No casualties or environmental damage have been reported. The vessel's name, flag, and extent of damage have not been disclosed. This figure compresses pre-war daily transits of roughly 80 to 140 vessels to less than five percent, highlighting the effectively closed status of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing military confrontation.

Visible transits: Weekend average of five per day, with AIS shutdowns skewing data

According to media reports, commodity analytics firms' vessel positioning data has compressed visible commercial traffic over the weekend to an average of about five per day. During the same period, transits with positioning enabled were primarily smaller vessels, including two liquefied petroleum gas carriers — one exiting via the Iran-side route, and another that departed with its signal off, heading toward India. Friday's visible transits briefly recovered to 14 vessels, including a very large crude carrier loaded with approximately two million barrels of Qatari crude that exited the strait with its transponder off. Maritime intelligence firm Windward's daily report published on August 30 (data through August 29) shows: five inbound vessels (three via the south corridor, two via the north corridor) and two outbound (both via the north corridor), with all recorded visible transits that day operating with AIS enabled. Inbound traffic was primarily cargo vessels, while outbound included one oil/chemical tanker and one bulk carrier. The firm also maintains its assessment that the US blockade on Iranian ports remains in effect, with no Iranian crude tankers recorded as having breached the blockade line. Note that these two data sets use different methodologies — one measures weekend daily averages of visible commercial vessels, the other measures single-day AIS-visible inbound and outbound totals — and neither can fully reflect the complete picture of strait transits. Turning off AIS does not mean vessels are not transiting; it simply means shore-based public tracking cannot capture those hulls. Pre-war, the strait saw roughly 80 to 140 daily transits in both directions (whether fishing vessels, naval auxiliaries, and coastal craft are counted varies by methodology). The International Monetary Fund's port watch latest public release is dated August 23, showing only three vessels that day, approximately four percent of typical pre-war levels. Its real-time monitoring page estimates war risk premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels and places the number of vessels stranded in the Gulf without berthing at around 300. Premiums are so high that most shipowners cannot afford them, effectively closing the waterway through pricing mechanisms.

Warning 122-26: 12 nautical miles north of Khasab, vessel name undisclosed

The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has flagged this incident as an attack warning, with information sourced from military channels and reported on a delayed basis. The incident occurred approximately between 20:35 and 20:53 UTC on August 29, at a position roughly 12 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, with the vessel proceeding inbound toward the Arabian Gulf. The warning did not disclose the vessel's name, flag, owner, or the type of projectile, nor did it specify the damaged area. The center has advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report suspicious activity to the center, with authorities still investigating. A similar incident occurred in the same waters just days earlier. Warning 121-26 recorded an event on August 25 at 17:30 UTC, when a tanker near Khasab was struck by an unidentified projectile and caught fire. The fire was extinguished, all crew were safe, and no environmental damage was reported. Khasab is located on Oman's Musandam Peninsula, directly facing the southern corridor entrance of the strait, and is also a waterway frequently transited by commercial vessels coordinated by the US side to use the southern route. The two incidents are separated by only four days and share highly overlapping locations, indicating that security threats in this region are shifting from sporadic to normalized.

North and south corridors compounded by weekend hostilities: Signal-shutdown and small-vessel transits become the norm

Current strait transits have evolved into two commonly used routes. The north corridor hugs Iranian territorial waters, with Tehran requiring commercial vessels to use this route; the south corridor runs along the Omani coast, with US naval forces providing escort for commercial vessels on the southern route. Public AIS data shows that most visible vessels no longer use the central traffic separation scheme designated by the International Maritime Organization pre-war. Since hostilities began on February 28, the proportion of "dark transits" with transponders switched off has surged from under one percent to the majority of transits, making public daily averages only a lower bound on actual traffic. As weekend figures landed, US forces on Sunday struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, stating they were preparing to lay mines in the strait — the first publicly disclosed military action against Iran in nearly a month. Iran subsequently launched missiles at a US military base in Jordan in retaliation. With attacks still occurring and militaries re-engaging over the weekend, shipping companies have generally chosen to reduce voyage frequency, switch to smaller vessels, and disable positioning signals. The visible five vessels on screen are far from proof that the strait has recovered to pre-war traffic levels of a hundred or more transits.