A new report from CICC highlights that as AI large-chip packaging dimensions continue to scale up, glass substrates are emerging as a vital material platform for next-generation advanced packaging, with core equipment segments likely to benefit first.
The brokerage outlines two primary investment pathways on the equipment side. First, it highlights the key incremental segment: TGV (Through Glass Via) equipment, which enables high-precision, high-density vias on glass panels. Compared to TSV, this process omits the insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss. Second, it recommends focusing on improved equipment tailored to glass and panel-level packaging characteristics, particularly tools with high value, high technical barriers, and low domestic localization rates, such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection systems.
CICC's core view is that glass substrates are currently in the "from 0 to 1" phase, with advanced packaging serving as the primary application scenario and offering significant growth potential. As AI computing chips evolve toward larger dimensions and higher density, traditional CoWoS approaches face challenges including high costs, difficult warpage control, and yield bottlenecks at large sizes. Glass substrates, leveraging their low coefficient of thermal expansion and low dielectric constant, can be applied to temporary carriers, glass core substrates, and glass interposers.
Global leading manufacturers are generally in the pilot line construction, sample delivery, and customer validation stages. The firm estimates that 2027-2028 will be critical milestones for small-batch commercial adoption. Meanwhile, glass substrates are simultaneously expanding into CPO (co-packaged optics), consumer electronics, and communications sectors, unlocking broad growth prospects.
The cumulative equipment market for glass substrates is projected to approach RMB 50 billion by 2030, with long-term potential reaching RMB 100 billion as penetration rates rise. On the materials side, CICC calculates the 2030 market for CoPoS panels used in glass interposers at RMB 9.4 billion, while glass motherboards for glass core carriers represent a RMB 41.5 billion market. Equipment cumulative market space is estimated at approximately RMB 48.9 billion by 2030.
Regarding equipment investment pathways, the report emphasizes two core directions. The first focuses on the key incremental segment: TGV equipment, which creates high-precision, high-density vias on glass panels. Compared to TSV, this process eliminates the insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss. The second direction targets improved equipment designed for glass characteristics and panel-level packaging, including high-value, high-technical-barrier, and low-localization tools such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection. Among these, PVD and electroplating are more complex, accounting for approximately 40% of production line investment. Electroplating presents high barriers and is prone to void formation that significantly impacts substrate yield, with overall domestic localization still at relatively low levels.
Risks highlighted include potential delays in industrialization progress and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.