Elon Musk has stepped in to correct Wall Street's timeline for SpaceX, asserting the company could achieve roughly $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033—about seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's most bullish projection. The CEO made his case directly on social media platform X, pushing back against the investment bank's forecast of 2040 for reaching that revenue milestone.

The exchange began after Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its "overweight" rating and $300 price target on SpaceX stock, projecting $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2040. Lead analyst Adam Jonas argued that investors have yet to fully grasp the scale of the company's Starship rocket program and its new Louisiana launch facility, suggesting the current share price—hovering near IPO levels—presents a "unique opportunity."

In a Wednesday investor report, Jonas wrote: "We do not believe investors fully appreciate the scale of SpaceX's plans for Starship." The note arrived on the heels of SpaceX's disclosure that it intends to invest $100 billion in a new Starbase facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana. Construction is slated to begin in 2027, with the first Starship launch targeted for 2029. The site is ultimately planned to host 15 launch pads—far exceeding the three currently operational—with an additional three pads expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027.

Jonas contends that the sheer scale of this expansion indicates the market has not adequately priced in SpaceX's launch cadence. Morgan Stanley's model conservatively assumes just two launches per pad per day, which would translate to roughly 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040—requiring only eight pads, below the company's planned 15. In other words, even if the Louisiana facility is not fully built out, SpaceX could still meet the bank's 2040 launch projections.

The analyst also highlighted Louisiana's geographic advantages. The location permits rockets to launch southward over the Gulf of Mexico, avoiding the densely populated airspace that complicates launches from Florida, Texas, or California. This enables SpaceX to expand into dawn-dusk sun-synchronous polar orbit capabilities, a trajectory Jonas described as "directly tied to orbital calculations." He views this as part of the longer-term narrative combining space launch, Starlink connectivity, and AI computing power.

Musk's response came after a user named "DogeDesigner" shared the bank's report on X, emphasizing SpaceX's "attractive valuation" and suggesting investors underestimate Starship's potential. Aaron Burnett, CEO of investment firm Mach 33, then reposted with commentary that Morgan Stanley's estimate was "barely half of the company's public target, and a decade behind the company's own timeline." That remark drew Musk's direct reply: "In my opinion, reaching approximately $3.5 trillion in revenue will happen around 2033."

This timeline suggests Musk believes SpaceX will hit the revenue milestone seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley anticipates. Notably, Musk has previously projected SpaceX would achieve $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. His latest comments further underscore the gap between the company's internal ambitions and Wall Street's modeling, with SpaceX even planning up to 10,000 Starship launches annually by 2030—a target partly fueled by the Trump administration's new space policy aimed at increasing NASA launch frequency.

Beyond revenue projections, Musk used the Louisiana Starbase project to paint a grander vision. He suggested the facility would enable Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot to become the first "von Neumann machine"—a self-replicating system. In Musk's narrative, SpaceX's Starship development and launch infrastructure would help "civilization expand across the galaxy and reach K3 level," referencing the Kardashev scale's Type III civilization capable of harnessing an entire galaxy's energy. This continues his long-standing positioning of SpaceX as the vehicle for making humanity a multiplanetary species.

On the near-term launch front, SpaceX continues rapid Starship testing. Musk revealed that the upcoming 14th flight test will attempt to capture the rocket's upper stage—a key milestone in fully reusable rocketry, following the successful booster catch.

Despite the optimism, SpaceX shares remain below their highs. Morgan Stanley's $300 price target implies roughly 114% upside from Thursday's closing price. Jonas noted that based on the bank's fiscal 2028 estimates, SpaceX trades at just 10 times price-to-sales (against 70% growth) and 25 times EBIT (against 113% growth). "We see a unique opportunity for investors to 're-examine' SPCX stock at near-IPO prices, with even stronger fundamental momentum in space, connectivity, and enterprise AI," Jonas wrote.

Since going public, SpaceX stock has struggled. The company debuted with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, but shares have since retreated to near IPO levels. Recent pressure followed second-quarter earnings, which featured higher capital expenditure guidance. However, Jonas indicated Morgan Stanley's view actually improved post-earnings, as investors gained clarity on lockup expiration effects that did not create the sustained selling pressure many had feared. He has previously characterized SpaceX as a "potential generational compounder," with more than half of his $300 target derived from AI ambitions tied to a potential xAI merger, while launch services and Starlink contribute the remainder.

Not all investors share this bullish stance. Hedge fund billionaire David Einhorn recently expressed a bearish view on SpaceX in a letter to investors, arguing that Musk's rocket and AI venture is overvalued.