Persian Gulf oil exports are showing remarkable resilience even as Tehran issues military threats and missile strikes grow more frequent. By late August 2026, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering as Middle Eastern producers adopt more flexible transport tactics.
To avoid high-risk waters, state-owned oil companies across the region are now running a maritime relay race. This approach, known as ship-to-ship transfer, has quickly become the standard practice. In this model, shuttle tankers controlled by the producers carry crude out of the Gulf, cross the most volatile stretch at Hormuz, and reach the relative safety of the Gulf of Oman. There, refiner vessels from Asia and other regions are already waiting. Once the oil is transferred at sea, the buyer's ship sets sail for its final destination.
Matt Smith, an analyst at commodity intelligence firm Kpler, notes that under this arrangement, the seller absorbs the risk of transiting the most dangerous leg of the journey, while buyers are willing to pay an added premium for that security. According to Kpler's latest assessment, when these transfer volumes are included, Persian Gulf oil flows in mid-August are estimated to have rebounded to roughly 15 million barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs analysts offer an even more upbeat outlook in a recent report. Combining Kpler data with multiple other sources, they calculate that regional crude and product exports have recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels daily. That is still 7 million to 8 million barrels below pre-war levels, but it represents a rebound of more than 5 million barrels from the trough seen in March of this year.
The recovery in shipments is happening against a backdrop of extremely dangerous operating conditions. On Monday evening, a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit by three unidentified projectiles. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed the incident took place east of Khasab, Oman. This marks the fourth such attack in the area in recent weeks, with the intensity rising from a single projectile to three, signaling a notable escalation.
The strike came just one day after direct exchanges of fire between US and Iranian forces. The US military hit Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, which were reportedly being prepared for mining operations; in response, Iran claimed it attacked US infrastructure in Jordan.
Amid the tension, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright took to social media to stress the US military's central role in keeping shipping lanes open. He said that with help from the US Navy, total oil volumes leaving the region through Hormuz and pipelines are approaching 20 million barrels per day.
In addition, a growing number of vessels are using a tactic known as going dark, turning off GPS signals to avoid detection. Goldman Sachs analysts believe this practice becoming routine suggests the shipping industry is bracing for disruptions to last well into 2027.
The geopolitical turmoil is now clearly reflected in prices. On Monday, Brent crude futures broke above the 90-dollar mark, while WTI futures climbed past 86 dollars. Facing elevated oil costs, President Trump has launched multiple initiatives. On one front, Washington recently struck a petroleum deal with Venezuela to bring in alternative supply. On another, Trump is scheduled to convene senior oil executives at the White House on Tuesday, with the core focus being how to bring down gasoline prices at the pump.
Meanwhile, the bottleneck in global energy markets is gradually shifting from the supply side to the refining stage. With shipping routes disrupted, refining margins in major importing nations across Asia have climbed to record highs. Even as producers keep finding workarounds through pipeline diversions to the Red Sea or transfers in the Gulf of Oman, Matt Smith cautions that total flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain far below the pre-war level of 21 million barrels per day. Until the situation becomes fully clear, a geopolitical risk premium will remain embedded in every barrel of oil.