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Market Highlights and Key Data

On the macroeconomic front, during the week of August 28, 2026, precious metals prices again experienced significant volatility. Approaching the weekend, following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, precious metals prices fell notably. In his speech, Warsh reiterated his assessment of the current economy: employment has met its target while inflation remains elevated, making inflation the Fed's sole focus. He also updated the Fed's economic analysis framework and key indicators: on employment, the core metrics are the unemployment rate and the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims; on inflation, besides the 12-month and 6-month PCE growth rates, attention is also given to the breadth/diffusion index — specifically the proportion of PCE components with gains exceeding 3%.

In economic data, the U.S. annual inflation rate for July unexpectedly held steady, remaining significantly above the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Due to the impact of the Iran war, the process of inflation retreating from its recent highs has stalled, aligning with Warsh's judgment on the future path of Fed monetary policy: if inflation cools more slowly, it could increase the urgency for rate hikes. Overall, the macro factors this week were relatively bearish.

Fundamentals

In the week of August 28, 2026, SHFE gold warehouse receipts stood at 113,658 kilograms, unchanged from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 14,692 kilograms to reach 1,409,999 kilograms. On the COMEX front, gold inventories changed by 329,246.14 ounces to 27,025,160.98 ounces, while COMEX silver inventories changed by 308,778.14 ounces to 338,173,277.32 ounces.

Macro data showed the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.8 basis points week-over-week to 4.714%; the US dollar index rose 0.85% to 99.68; and the US 10-year minus 2-year yield spread narrowed 13.4 basis points to 0.364%. On the rate path, Fedwatch indicated a 57.0% probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting and a 43.0% probability of holding rates steady. Warsh's reiteration of the inflation target's dominance at the Jackson Hole meeting during the week was widely interpreted as a hawkish signal, significantly boosting market bets on a September hike, with bearish factors for precious metals prevailing overall.

In precious metals ETFs, for the week of August 28 (latest available), gold SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 4.85 tons to 1,042.357 tons, while silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 64.65 tons to 15,359.92 tons. As of August 25, 2026, CFTC positioning data showed gold speculative net long positions increased by 5,393 contracts to 151,315. Silver net long positions increased by 2,467 contracts to 13,235.

During the week of August 28, 2026, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21% week-over-week, while the electronic components sector index, which is related to precious metals, rose 0.73%, and the photovoltaic sector gained 1.81%. On the photovoltaic price index front, as of August 24, 2026 (latest data), the reading was 14.07, flat from the prior period. The photovoltaic manager index reported 104.29, up 8.0 month-over-month.

Strategy

Gold: Cautiously Bullish

Precious metals again fluctuated significantly during the week. Fed Chair Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium boosted short-term market bets on a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, and on the geopolitical front, there has been no substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations, creating short-term bearish pressure on precious metals. However, these short-term headwinds do not alter the underlying uptrend logic of precious metals as substitutes for dollar assets. Therefore, for operations, hedging-wise, gold is still recommended for buy-on-dip hedging, while for speculative positions, waiting for better entry points is advisable. The operating range is 950 yuan/gram to 1,050 yuan/gram.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish

Silver's logic is currently similar to that of gold, but given silver's higher volatility and that this adjustment coincides with a stronger US dollar index, while buy-on-dip hedging remains feasible, more attention must be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution.

Arbitrage: Pause

Options: Pause

Risk

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