According to energy consultancy Rystad Energy, a recent agreement with the United States could provide a short-term boost to Venezuela's crude production, but returning to its historical peak of over 3 million barrels per day may take decades.

Last Friday, US President Donald Trump announced that the US government, in partnership with private companies, would gain access to Venezuela's 650 billion barrels of oil reserves. Under this arrangement, the US side would control 55% of the output from joint ventures and purchase crude at cost price. Trump stated this oil would be used to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Venezuela's current crude output stands at roughly 1 million barrels per day, only one-third of its peak production levels from the 1990s. In a market update released on Monday, Rystad Energy projects that new production will initially rely on existing wells, with daily output rising from an estimated 157,000 barrels in 2027 to 680,000 barrels by 2030. By the mid-2030s, these mature fields could contribute around 740,000 barrels per day.

The consultancy also forecasts that renewed exploration in the Orinoco Belt could deliver "significant" volumes around 2035, reaching 840,000 barrels per day by 2040 and approaching 2 million barrels per day by 2050.