The escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran over the weekend reveal a growing sense of impatience in Washington over the slow pace of sanctions pressure, according to analysts.

Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island. The renewed exchange of fire has once again raised questions about whether the conflict will edge toward a resolution or spiral further out of control. Experts suggest the threat against Kharg Island is likely to remain rhetorical.

On May 16, 2026, Iranian flags flew over multiple vessels anchored near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Sunday, US forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island as Tehran was preparing to fire mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz, ending a month-long lull in direct military exchanges. This marked the first publicly acknowledged US strike on Iran since late July.

Within hours, Iran retaliated by launching eight missiles at King Hussein Air Base and Azraq Air Base in Jordan. Jordanian authorities reported that all eight missiles were intercepted by its air defense systems, with no casualties.

Later on Sunday, Trump took to social media to threaten the "obliteration" of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal.

Ian Ralby, a maritime security expert and president of Auxilium Worldwide, noted: "This war has been tactical from the start but strategically questionable. The question is: why act now?"

Ralby said sanctions pressure has failed to cripple Iran's leadership at the pace Washington had hoped. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that the US expects to announce new sanctions against Iran on a weekly basis, targeting banking institutions, with plans to fully sever Iran-linked entities from the dollar system.

"Perhaps the financial pressure hasn't constrained Iran's behavior the way the US expected," Ralby said. At the same time, Iran's latest military actions may have "escalated to a level that threatens US forces and interests in the region, forcing America to strike Iranian territory again."

Ralby added that the US strike appears more like an attempt to break the stalemate rather than a shift in policy direction. "The status quo has reached a kind of stagnation, and the US certainly wants things to change. But this is unlikely to alter the broader picture of continued blockades and economic warfare against Iran."

Potential for Escalation

Experts believe Trump's threat against Kharg Island is unlikely to be carried out. The oil terminal has already endured dozens of attacks since the war began.

"The US president probably won't follow through on the threat to strike Kharg Island," Ralby said, noting that the island also contains an ancient early Christian church site that Iran has made efforts to protect. An attack would "not only destroy critical oil infrastructure but also damage cultural heritage and likely cause catastrophic environmental destruction," he said. "The threat may look tempting, but actually blowing it up holds very little appeal."

Iran is unlikely to confront US forces head-on, instead favoring retaliation through proxies, disrupting shipping, and disrupting energy flows. "This conflict has been asymmetrical from the very beginning," Ralby said. "Iran has proven it can inflict significant damage with limited actual force."

For instance, the Houthi movement, which controls large parts of Yemen and has influenced shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for nearly a decade, entered the war on Iran's side weeks ago.

Michael Ratney, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that after the Houthis disrupted the Bab el-Mandeb, the US and its regional allies face a risk: the two major maritime chokepoints that handle most of the Gulf's oil exports would both be "subject to manipulation by Iran and its partners."

"We tend to assume the Houthis and Iran are on the same side, but that's not always the case," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. "Many of their past actions have been conducted independently."

Additionally, with multiple naval forces concentrated in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, Somali pirates have made a comeback after disappearing since 2013. At least five vessels have been hijacked, including an oil tanker seized near Mukalla on August 20.

Ralby assessed: "Iran's retaliation will likely focus on increasing pressure on oil production, energy markets, and global shipping."

Military operations remain the dominant factor influencing oil prices. Galimberti estimated that last week, crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz via the Oman shipping lane, under US Navy escort, reached approximately 7 million barrels per day. He described the mechanism as "extremely costly but effective."

However, the US strike on Larak Island could reverse the momentum of restored transits, injecting new uncertainty into commercial shipping through the waterway. "Oil volumes are expected to decline in the coming days, which will inevitably push prices higher," Galimberti said.