Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that the long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, signaling that the timing for long-cycle positioning has arrived. The firm notes that resource competition is strengthening copper's strategic value, and while short-term copper price fluctuations are a factor, they are not expected to alter the medium-term bullish outlook. Looking at the medium-to-long term, the brokerage continues to view rare earths as a key strategic resource with significant investment value. With tightening supply and a global restructuring of orders, the tungsten sector's prosperity is expected to continue its recovery. In a state of tight supply-demand balance, the balance sheet is important, but greater attention must be paid to the core macroeconomic impact on metal price trends, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical maneuvering, and supply disruptions set to be the decisive factors.

Precious Metals: Price Breakthrough, Continue Positioning in the Sector

The US non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a decline that exceeded expectations, prompting the market to scale back pricing for further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. The US Treasury increased its bond repurchases to lower long-term interest rates, but with little effect, intensifying market concerns over US debt and leading to a breakout in precious metal prices. Although geopolitical volatility persists in the Middle East, its correlation has diminished, and prices are expected to continue moving higher. The long-term logic for precious metals is robust, marking the arrival of a long-cycle entry point. Recommended stocks include Shanjin International Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources; related stocks include Zhaojin Mining.

Copper: Tariff Catalysts and Resource Competition Strengthen Strategic Value

With US copper tariff expectations looming, global resource competition may intensify and supply constraints are likely to remain strong. Concurrently, high US deficits and debt expansion continue to undermine dollar credibility, potentially driving a further revaluation of resource values. Next week's Jackson Hole symposium will serve as a key macro observation window, where Fed policy signals could influence short-term copper price movements through the dollar and Treasury yields, but this is not expected to alter the medium-term strength of the narrative. Recommended stocks include Western Mining and Zijin Mining.

Aluminum: Domestic Inventory Drawdown Provides Support, Prices Range-Bound

On the macro front, stalled US-Iran peace talks maintain a geopolitical risk premium. On the demand side, the operating rate at leading aluminum processing enterprises edged up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week to 60.0%. On inventories, SMM data shows domestic social inventories of electrolytic aluminum at 875,000 tonnes, down 23,000 tonnes from last Thursday. Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminium, Tianshan Aluminium, China Hongqiao, and Shenhuo; related stocks include Chalco and Chuangxin Shiye.

Tin: Supply Disruptions Continue to Support Prices

The suspension at Yinyan Mining remains unresolved, and the ceiling on Wa State's resumption of operations is still constrained, keeping the concentrate supply side tight. Demand retains its off-season characteristics, with domestic social inventories rising sequentially during the week, though LME inventories remain at historically low levels, providing support for tin prices. On the equity side, attention is on resource-based companies with high-quality tin reserves and future production growth potential. Recommended stocks include Tin Industries and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals.

Energy Metals: Tight Supply-Demand Balance and Strong Fundamentals Drive Prices Higher

For lithium carbonate, output rose last week while inventories continued to decline, with total stock levels now not particularly high. On the supply side, the outlook for the resumption of operations at a major Jiangxi mine remains unclear, and as Zimbabwean concentrate gradually arrives at ports, the supply increase has already been reflected in prices. On the demand side, production schedules continue to rise sequentially, and with substantial inventory drawdowns, trading based on strong spot fundamentals has begun, relegating weak long-term demand expectations to a secondary role. Overly bearish demand views could lower expectations for supply-side output increases. Recommended stocks include Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium. For the nickel sector, refined nickel inventories have seen some drawdown, while clarity on Indonesia's second batch of nickel ore quotas remains pending. With a loose supply-demand balance, nickel prices are expected to drift slowly higher. Recommended stock: Huayou Cobalt; related stocks include GEM.

Rare Earths: Prices Rise in a Fluctuating Manner

In the short term, as the season transitions from off-peak to peak, downstream restocking demand is expected to recover, and prices should see further gains. Looking at the medium-to-long term, the firm continues to advocate the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource. Recommended stocks include Zhongxi Nonferrous and JL MAG.

Strategic Minor Metals: Strategic Value Comes to the Fore

For tungsten, tightening supply combined with a global restructuring of orders suggests the sector's prosperity is poised to continue its recovery. Recently, some small tungsten mines have cut or halted production, and with low concentrate inventories, tungsten concentrate prices have resumed their upward trajectory. Additionally, as the peak season for September-October approaches, downstream restocking demand is expected to improve. Export controls are accelerating the transition towards high-value-added deep-processed products, and continued price increases for overseas cutting tools, along with constrained supply of high-end tungsten materials in Japan, are also expected to drive order shifts back to China. On the equity side, the focus remains on the direction of "resources + deep processing + import substitution." Recommended stocks include China Tungsten and Hightech and Xiamen Tungsten; related stocks include Jiaxin International Resources. For uranium, the July long-term contract price for natural uranium stood at $95.5 per pound, flat month-on-month. Rigid supply and nuclear power development create a persistent supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Recommended stock: China Uranium; related stocks include CGN Mining. For tantalum, supply-demand mismatches support tantalum prices. Global tantalum concentrate supply is tight, and the development of emerging industries like AI is pulling terminal demand higher. The firm expects tantalum prices to remain at elevated levels and advises paying attention to capacity releases from leading companies. Recommended stock: Ningxia Orient Tantalum; related stocks include Rare Earth Resources.

Risk Warning

Downstream demand may be weaker than expected, supply-side releases could be substantial, and Federal Reserve rate cuts may fall short of expectations.