Multiple government bodies have issued coordinated policy documents, signaling that the institutional framework for the new real estate development model is transitioning from blueprint to implementation.

On August 28, China's property sector witnessed a landmark policy adjustment of historic significance. The Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System requires local authorities to promote the sale of completed residential projects in an orderly manner, achieving "what you see is what you get." For newly transferred land parcels and projects where land has been transferred but construction project planning permits have not yet been obtained, priority should be given to selling completed homes. For projects that continue to use the pre-sale model, individual buildings must complete structural topping-out before sales are permitted.

On the same day, the Opinions on Reforming and Improving Real Estate Credit Management to Accelerate the Construction of a New Real Estate Development Model were formally issued. Personal housing loan terms have been extended from a maximum of 30 years to 40 years, providing greater flexibility for both lenders and borrowers. Loans are to be disbursed through entrusted payment arrangements, with funds released after sales filing for completed homes and after project completion filing for pre-sold units, ensuring that buyers "receive their homes before repaying loans."

Financing-side policies have also been strengthened. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the Opinions on Capital Market Support for Building a New Real Estate Development Model, backing listed developers' refinancing and mergers and acquisitions. This pushes the industry to shift from relying on corporate credit to project-based financing, with equal treatment of reasonable financing needs across developers of all ownership types. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has launched a "five-pronged" approach, establishing a lead bank system for development loans to provide full-cycle financial support for real estate development, construction, sales, and operations.

Industry analysts believe this comprehensive package covers the entire chain of sales, credit, and financing, marking substantial institutional progress for the new real estate development model.

Leading Central State-Owned Enterprises Gain Competitive Advantage

Real estate is a comprehensive industry that encompasses development, construction, management, maintenance, renovation, and services related to land and buildings. Guotai Haitong Securities believes the future competitive focus of the industry will shift decisively from "scale and speed" to "product quality, build quality, and delivery reliability." For companies with stable operations and strong product capabilities, the new rules open up space for standardized development and will significantly enhance resource allocation toward quality enterprises.

A latest research report from Guosen Securities notes that the new completed-home sales policy is fundamentally about "differentiating old and new projects, improving the pre-sale system, and prioritizing completed-home sales." In the short term, project internal rates of return will decline substantially, though profit margins may improve. Over the long term, the financial attributes of developers will be further weakened, with product strength and cost control becoming core sources of alpha for real estate companies.

Western Securities considers this round of policy a landmark step in transforming the "new development model" from concept to institutional implementation, representing structural supply-side institutional reform rather than short-term demand-side stimulus. The main thrust involves a three-pronged mechanism of "completed-home sales, closed fund management, and deferred mortgage disbursement," which fundamentally isolates delivery risks and reshapes the underlying rules of developer financing and sales, with far-reaching implications for the industry landscape.

The brokerage further points out that the transition from pre-sales to completed-home sales will create greater operational pressure for developers relying on high leverage and rapid pre-sale turnover, accelerating industry concentration toward highly creditworthy, financially stable leading developers, particularly central state-owned enterprises. It recommends attention to leading central SOE developers including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, C&D International, and Yuexiu Property.

Multiple Concept Stocks Attract Margin Buying

According to Eastmoney industry classification, there are currently 92 property stocks in the A-share market, with a combined market capitalization of approximately 915 billion yuan. China Merchants Shekou leads with a market cap of 64.555 billion yuan, followed by Poly Developments at 62.127 billion yuan and Zhangjiang High-Tech at 47.158 billion yuan. Lujiazui, Vanke A, Binjiang Group, Seazen Holdings, and Quzhou Development each have market caps exceeding 25 billion yuan.

Year-to-date, the property concept sector has trended weakly overall, with 18 stocks rising and 74 falling. Xiangjiang Holdings and Sunshine Co have led gains with more than 180% appreciation, while Beijing Toudao and Rongfeng Holding have also more than doubled in price. On the downside, as many as 28 stocks including Greenland Holdings, Shoucheng Co, Shenzhen Zhenye A, and Huafa Co have all fallen more than 20%.

Last week, the property sector showed signs of recovery, with over 80% of stocks recording price gains. Xiangjiang Holdings rose 28% to lead the pack, Woaiwojia gained 18%, and Shahe Co, Shenzhen Properties A, TEFF Services, and Beijing Toudao all advanced more than 10%.

From a capital flow perspective, Eastmoney Choice data shows that 30 property stocks attracted margin buying last week. Among them, Yingxin Development received 51.67 million yuan in leveraged capital additions, China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments drew 48.33 million yuan and 27.77 million yuan respectively, while Hefei Urban Construction, Shirong Yehao, and Heimudan each saw net margin purchases exceeding 10 million yuan.

Regarding dividend yields, 10 property stocks currently offer TTM dividend yields above 1.5%. China World Trade Center leads with a dividend yield of 5.66%, Nanjing Gaoke and Pudong Jinqiao both exceed 4.1%, and China Merchants Property Operation, Shanghai Lingang Holdings, and CSSC New Century have dividend yields ranging from 2.3% to 3%.