According to the monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, the domestic refined oil product price adjustment window for this round will officially open at 24:00 today (August 28). During this adjustment cycle (from 24:00 on August 14 to 24:00 on August 28), international oil prices have been fluctuating due to a combination of factors.
Starting from 24:00 on August 28, the domestic retail price ceilings for gasoline and diesel will be raised by 375 yuan and 360 yuan per tonne, respectively. On a nationwide average, No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel will see their per-litre prices increase by 0.29 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. A quick calculation reveals that for a private car with a standard 50-litre fuel tank, filling up with No. 92 gasoline will now cost an additional 14.5 yuan.
International Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Geopolitical Tensions
During this adjustment cycle, the upward pressure on international oil prices has been largely driven by the persistent tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The average price level for this period has surpassed that of the previous cycle. First, the escalation of US-Iran confrontational stances has pushed up the geopolitical risk premium. The ceasefire negotiations between the two nations have hit a stalemate this cycle, with former President Trump publicly stating that the US has no intention of restarting the June agreement terms and announcing harsher economic sanctions against Iran. In response, Iran has maintained a firm position, and mediation efforts have yielded no substantive progress. This situation once drove Brent crude oil futures to a near four-week high of $94 per barrel.
Second, the ongoing restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over global crude supply disruptions. Iran has been clear that it will maintain its blockade stance until the US meets the conditions of the temporary June agreement. Data from Kpler indicates that the volume of bulk commodity vessel transits has further declined over the weekend. Additionally, frequent attacks in the Middle East region have heightened tensions between the UAE, Oman, and Iran, amplifying risks to both shipping and supply chains. However, towards the latter part of the cycle, news of consultations regarding the reopening of the strait led to a partial pullback in international oil prices from their highs.
Market Outlook Remains Uncertain
Looking ahead, the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with significant uncertainty. Negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be fraught with repeated back-and-forth. The US is likely to intensify pressure on Iran through further economic sanctions and naval blockades, making it difficult to alleviate the restrictions on strait transit in the short term. Market participants should continue to closely monitor the trajectory of US-Iran relations and its potential impact on international oil price volatility.