The window for adjusting domestic refined oil product prices will open at 24:00 today (August 28). According to monitoring by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, international oil prices fluctuated during this adjustment cycle (from 24:00 on August 14 to 24:00 on August 28).
Starting from 24:00 on August 28, the retail price ceilings for gasoline and diesel in China will be raised by 375 yuan and 360 yuan per ton, respectively. On a national average basis, the per-liter prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.29 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. For private car owners, this confirmed increase means that filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will now cost an additional 14.5 yuan.
Why did international oil prices fluctuate during this adjustment period?
Throughout the cycle, international oil prices swung due to sustained tensions between the U.S. and Iran and disruptions to passage through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in an average price level higher than the previous adjustment period. One key factor was the escalation of U.S.-Iran confrontation, which pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. During the period, ceasefire talks between the two nations hit a stalemate. Public statements indicated that the U.S. side had no intention of reviving the terms of the June agreement and announced even stricter economic sanctions against Iran. With Iran taking a firm stance and mediation efforts yielding no substantial progress, Brent crude futures briefly rose to a near four-week high of $94 per barrel.
Another factor was the prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns over global crude supply. Iran made it clear that it would maintain its blockade of the strait until the U.S. met the conditions of the temporary June agreement. Data from Kpler showed that the transit volume of bulk commodity vessels over the weekend declined further. At the same time, frequent attacks in the Middle East and rising tensions involving the UAE, Oman, and Iran have once again intensified shipping and supply risks. Later, as news emerged of consultations among various parties over restoring navigation through the strait, international oil prices partially retreated from their highs in a short period.
The Price Monitoring Center has assessed that geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain at this stage. Negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz are locked in back-and-forth discussions, and the U.S. is intensifying pressure on Iran through further economic sanctions and a maritime blockade. The restricted passage through the strait is unlikely to ease in the short term. Going forward, close attention must be paid to the impact of U.S.-Iran developments on international oil prices.