On Monday, September 1st, our analysis from the previous day indicated that recent U.S. PCE data exceeding expectations, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, and the Fed Chair's statement that inflation remains too high with more work to be done, have all fueled market expectations for additional rate hikes. This has directly pressured gold prices, and short-term technical indicators suggest the potential for further declines. Consequently, our operational advice was to monitor resistance at $4435, followed by $4472 and $4500, with support at $4396, then $4350 and $4300.

Looking at subsequent price action, during Friday's Asian session, gold found stability and rebounded from $4413, then climbed to face resistance at $4464 during the European session. After the U.S. market open, gold came under renewed pressure, dipping to $4415 before stabilizing. Into the close, it encountered resistance at $4455 during a rebound. Currently, the metal is trading near $4450. Overall, following Friday's sharp decline, gold saw limited movement on Monday, maintaining a low-level, range-bound consolidation.

Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that last week's U.S. PCE data remained above the Fed's target for the 65th consecutive month. Against this backdrop, multiple Fed officials delivered hawkish remarks, with the core message being that current interest rate levels are insufficient to curb inflation and further action is required. These factors have stalled gold's upward trend, with prices pulling back from highs and entering high-level volatility. Last Friday, the Fed Chair's speech at the global central bank symposium shifted from previous ambiguous policy signals, explicitly stating that U.S. inflation remains too high and the Fed still has work to do. This further intensified market expectations for rate hikes, sending the U.S. dollar to a one-week high and directly triggering a sharp single-day drop in gold prices, which hit a one-week low.

Looking ahead, with only two weeks remaining until the September policy meeting, the upcoming August non-farm payrolls and CPI data will be crucial. If non-farm payrolls prove strong and CPI inflation exceeds expectations, the likelihood of a September rate hike could increase substantially, potentially pressuring gold prices once again.

On the daily chart, gold has retreated from its highs and, after refreshing a one-week low, has temporarily stabilized and is consolidating at lower levels. Key upside resistance is seen at Monday's high of $4472, followed by the $4500 round number. On the downside, support can be identified at Monday's U.S. session stabilization point of $4415, followed by Monday's low of $4396, and the weekly Bollinger Band middle track at $4350. The Bollinger Bands continue to contract, the 5-day moving average has formed a bearish cross, and the MACD, RSI, and KDJ indicators have all formed bearish crosses with downward momentum. Short-term technical indicators suggest gold faces further downside risk.

Reference for today: The Fed Chair's speech released hawkish signals, shifting from previous ambiguous policy stances and clearly stating that inflation remains too high and the Fed has more work to do. This has notably elevated market expectations for Fed rate hikes, pressuring gold prices. For trading, a range-bound approach is advised, with upside resistance at $4472 and $4500, and downside support at $4415 and $4396, followed by $4350.