With inflation data in Australia remaining elevated, economists from major institutions including Goldman Sachs and Commonwealth Bank of Australia have abandoned earlier forecasts of holding rates steady for the year, now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates again as soon as next month.
Wednesday's inflation report showed price pressures staying persistently high, while the RBA's August meeting minutes also indicated a lower tolerance among the rate-setting committee for rising consumer prices.
Commonwealth Bank stated on Thursday that the latest inflation figures could cause the central bank to "lose patience," projecting a 25-basis-point rate hike in November to lift the cash rate to 4.6%, while also noting that the risk of action at the RBA's September 28-29 meeting has escalated.
Economist Belinda Allen remarked, "The Australian economy requires tighter monetary policy." Economists at ANZ Bank and Goldman Sachs also foresee a November rate increase, with Goldman Sachs additionally highlighting that the possibility of an earlier move in September has emerged.
Deutsche Bank economist Phil Odonaghoe has taken a more hawkish stance, adjusting his forecast first after Wednesday's consumer price index release, and further predicting a direct rate hike at the September meeting, citing core inflation levels that are "uncomfortably high."
Sally Auld from National Australia Bank has also shifted to predicting a September increase, with risks "leaning toward another hike in November, especially if activity data shows economic resilience in the coming months."
Influenced by the hawkish meeting minutes and inflation data, Australian bond prices have declined for three consecutive days. The policy-sensitive 3-year government bond yield rose 7 basis points to 4.67% in early trading, reaching a one-month high, while market expectations for a November rate hike have strengthened further.