Oilseeds and Protein Meal: Monday saw CBOT soybeans close lower, weighed down by profit-taking and a decline in the broader grains complex. Earlier gains, driven by rising crude oil prices and robust export demand, were erased as the session progressed. Post-market crop reports revealed US soybean condition ratings fell to 58% good-to-excellent, down from 60% the previous week. Pod setting reached 95%, while leaf drop stood at 13%, both ahead of last year's pace and the five-year average. The USDA announced a sale of 159,000 metric tons of soybeans to an unknown destination. The resumption of military actions between the US and Iran has reignited concerns about potential disruptions to global supply chains. On the domestic front, both rapeseed meal and soybean meal futures experienced a rally that faded by the close, with capital exiting the market. While concerns over the US-Iran situation and the Black Sea region have lifted international soybean prices, providing some support, the peak of Q3 soybean arrivals has not yet passed, leaving spot supply relatively ample. Downstream buyers remain subdued, purchasing only for immediate needs. The tug-of-war between near-term and far-month contracts persists, with market attention focused on capital flows.

Oils and Fats: The BMD palm oil market was closed on Monday for a holiday, resuming trading on Tuesday. The resumption of US-Iran military actions has rekindled fears of global supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher. Canadian canola futures settled lower, pressured by harvest-related selling. Ideal weather conditions in key Canadian growing regions also added to the bearish sentiment, with a pullback in the broader grains market exerting additional pressure. Domestic edible oil markets followed overseas gains, hitting new highs with strong capital inflows. The performance of the oils sector has been more robust than that of protein meals. The market is likely to maintain its pattern of weaker near-term contracts and stronger far-month contracts. Going forward, market participants will be closely monitoring shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and domestic consumption trends.

Live Hogs: Hog futures traded with a downward bias on Monday, with the main 2611 contract weakening during the session, closing 0.83% lower at 11,955 yuan per ton. In the spot market, data from Zhuochuang Information showed the national average hog price at 11.18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6 yuan from the previous day. The benchmark delivery area in Henan saw prices at 11.5 yuan per kilogram, a rise of 0.64 yuan. Significant gains were also recorded in Guangdong, Sichuan, Liaoning, and Shandong. Producer enthusiasm for selling was low at the end of the month, limiting market supply. This, combined with demand support from the back-to-school season and increased downstream purchasing, drove spot prices higher. However, the broader backdrop of ample supply remains unchanged, suggesting spot prices will likely continue to fluctuate within a range.

Eggs: Egg futures continued their sideways trading pattern on Monday, with the main 2610 contract closing nearly flat, down 0.13% at 3,786 yuan per 500 kilograms. Due to position limit rules, the cap for the 2610 contract will be reduced from 1,200 lots to 400 lots starting tomorrow. In the spot market, Zhuochuang data showed the national average egg price at 4.96 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan. Regional prices varied, with Ningjin powdered shell eggs at 4.75 yuan per catty, Heishan brown shell eggs steady at 4.8 yuan, Puxi brown shell eggs down 0.09 yuan to 5.13 yuan, and the Guangzhou market seeing brown shell eggs hold at 5.15 yuan per catty. Downstream demand is turning lackluster, with end-users purchasing on an as-needed basis, leading to a continued pullback in spot prices. Futures remain rangebound, and the market is awaiting a directional signal. Attention will be on demand changes for spot price guidance.

Corn: Corn futures saw a decline in open interest on Monday, with the night session closing with a small bearish candle. In the spot market, trading in Northeast China was moderate. While prices saw some gains last week, traders remain in a loss-making position, adjusting their selling based on their individual circumstances. With the new crop season approaching, attention is shifting to the new harvest. In Liaoning, there is a high probability of production cuts, and market focus will be on the new crop's arrival and farmer selling progress. Corn prices in North China remained largely stable, trading within a narrow range. Supply-side pressure from warehouse releases persists and is expected to increase as the new corn listing date nears. Downstream demand is steady, with buyers purchasing on a need-basis. The market is expected to maintain a weak, volatile trend until the new crop is available. In the southern sales regions, quotations stabilized with slight adjustments, showing a clear divergence in market sentiment versus actual trading activity. Firmer futures lifted the spot market mood, but the boost to physical transactions was limited. Downstream enterprises remain cautious in their purchasing, generally maintaining minimal inventory restocking. Overall, the rotation of capital across the agricultural product complex deserves continued monitoring. In the short term, be wary of price corrections from recent highs due to potential capital exits.

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